SMM HRC Daily: Production Cut Rumors Boost Futures, Spot Market活跃

[SMM HRC Daily Review] Rumors of Production Cuts Continue to Ferment, the Most-Traded HRC Contract Rises 1.70% Intraday

HRC futures market reversed its downtrend and strengthened, with the May contract rising above 3,400, up 1.70%. In the spot market, trading was active in many areas during the day, with low-price transactions being particularly lively. On the news front, there were more rumors of coal mine production cuts and crude steel production restrictions, along with reports of accidents at raw material mines, leading to a collective rally in the ferrous metals series.

From a fundamental perspective, HRC production declined MoM this week as some steel mills were affected by maintenance and regional environmental protection-driven production restrictions. In terms of inventory, SMM's statistics for 86 warehouses (large sample) showed that the national HRC social inventory was 4.4704 million mt, down 85,500 mt or 1.88% MoM, and up 1.23% YoY. This week, the national social inventory continued to decline, with the decline expanding. By region, the South China and East China markets saw larger declines, while the Central China, North China, and north-east China markets fluctuated rangebound. Apparent demand rose slightly, and overall, the fundamental imbalance was not significant. The market is expected to see substantial progress in production restriction news, and HRC prices are expected to have some upside room in the short term.