Record-Breaking COMEX-LME Copper Price Spread Drives SHFE Copper Higher [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

SMM March 20 News: Overnight, LME copper 3M opened at $9,932.5, initially tested the lowest price of $9,927 during the session, then fluctuated upward, reaching the highest price of $9,998.0, and finally closed at $9,997.5. Compared to the previous close ($9,902.0), it increased by $95.5, a rise of 0.96%. Trading volume was 17,485 lots, and open interest reached 288,619 lots. Overnight, SHFE copper 2505 contract opened at 81,060 yuan, initially tested the lowest price of 80,850 yuan during the session, then fluctuated upward, reaching the highest price of 81,260 yuan, and finally closed at 81,230 yuan. Compared to the previous close (80,890 yuan), it increased by 580 yuan, a rise of 0.72%. Trading volume was 40,412 lots, and open interest reached 242,320 lots. Macro side, COMEX copper has reached its highest level since May last year, with the premium of COMEX copper prices over LME copper prices expanding to a record $1,198 per mt, surpassing the previous record set on Tuesday. Driven by the price spread, copper prices continued to rise. Meanwhile, on March 20, the US Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with market expectations, stating that economic uncertainty has increased. The dot plot indicates that two interest rate cuts are expected in 2025, consistent with December last year. Additionally, the Fed will begin slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction starting April 1. The US dollar index jumped initially and then pulled back, which to some extent limited the rise in copper prices. Fundamentally, copper prices remained above 80,000 yuan, and during the destocking cycle, premiums remained firm. Overall market transactions were mediocre, except for the South China market, which remained active, while downstream purchasing demand was noticeably under pressure. In summary, with the US dollar index operating at low levels, COMEX copper continuing to rise, and technical buying support, copper prices are expected to remain firm today.