SMM Aluminum Futures Brief: Mixed Market Signals Amid Trade Policies, Electricity Consumption Rise, and Alumina Price Decline

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief: Mine Price Pullback Lowers Cost Center, Alumina and SHFE Aluminum Prices Under Pressure]

Macro perspective, overseas trade protection and slowing growth create a bearish resonance; domestically, the trade-in policy continues to gain momentum, with three departments promoting the scrappage and renewal of high-emission trucks. Combined with a 1.3% YoY increase in nationwide electricity consumption from January-February, the divergence between domestic and international markets persists.

Fundamentally, the recent tug-of-war between alumina buyers and sellers continues, with sporadic spot transactions in the alumina spot market and transaction prices seeing further slight declines. Spot alumina prices are expected to fluctuate downward in the short term. The traditional peak season effect of "Golden March and Silver April" continues to emerge, and the aluminum supply and demand structure is steadily improving. Aluminum prices are expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the near term, fluctuating downward. Short-term focus remains on changes in US tariff policies and the actual release of downstream demand.