Market Sentiment Weakens, Iron Ore Prices Drop to a New Low Since March [SMM Commentary]

The most-traded HRC contract fluctuated today, closing at 3,279 with a slight intraday decline of 0.3%. This week, cold-rolled and hot-rolled prices continued to weaken, and overall transaction volumes remained low. In terms of supply, the impact from mill line maintenance decreased WoW, leading to a slight increase in total HRC production. On the demand side, apparent demand dropped MoM. Regarding inventory, according to SMM statistics, HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) reached 4.3757 million mt, up 84,500 mt or 1.97% WoW, and up 43.10% YoY on a lunar calendar basis. By region, all markets saw inventory buildup WoW, with the Northeast market recording a relatively large buildup. Cost side, the ninth round of coke price increases was implemented this week. Influenced by raw material market news, costs showed a pattern of strength early on and weakness later. Looking ahead, although the market has initiated a tenth round of coke price hikes, hot metal output has slowly pulled back from its peak, and cost support is expected to remain flat compared to earlier estimates. From the HRC supply-demand perspective, the current imbalance continues to accumulate. Amid off-season demand, inventory pressure is expected to persist and weigh on prices. Combined with remaining cost-side support, downside room is relatively small. HRC prices are likely to show a bottom-consolidation pattern next week, with the most-traded HRC contract moving in the 3,250–3,330 range.

[튀르키예] 이번 주 내내 튀르키예 철근의 국내 및 수출 수요가 약세를 유지하면서 수출 가격이 FOB 톤당 575달러로 하락했는데， 이는 제철소 재고 감소와 확정 구매 주문 부족이 주된 원인이다。 한편 열연강판(HRC) 오퍼 가격은 FOB 톤당 585달러로 인하됐다。 국내 시장은 여전히 부진하며， 이번 여름 수요의 큰 폭 회복을 기대하기 어렵다。 건설 수요 회복이 더뎌 대형 제철소는 인도 가능한 철근 재고를 충분히 보유하고 있으나， 유통업체들은 현금 흐름 악화와 높은 차입 비용으로 재고 보충을 꺼리고 있다。