SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: US Growth Outlook Dims, Aluminum Prices Stay Elevated

【SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: US Growth Expectations Continue to Be Downgraded, Aluminum Prices Hover at Highs】

Macro side, US consumer confidence in March plummeted, and inflation expectations surged. Domestically, the favorable macro front remains unchanged, with the government focusing on intensifying policy efforts and fostering positive interaction and coordinated momentum between policy measures and market forces to maximize policy effectiveness.

Fundamentals side, supply side, domestic aluminum production resumption continues to advance. With spot prices of alumina, petroleum coke, and other raw and auxiliary materials fluctuating downward, cost side support for aluminum continues to weaken. During the week, aluminum ingot social inventory continued destocking, coupled with a sustained rebound in operating rates of aluminum processing enterprises, providing support on the consumption side. However, aluminum prices fluctuating at highs suppressed downstream purchase willingness, leading to insufficient momentum for operating rate growth in some enterprises, while spot premiums in various regions were constrained.

Aluminum prices are expected to hover at highs in the near term, with short-term focus remaining on changes in US tariff policies and the actual release of downstream demand.