Macro and Fundamentals Rotation: No Strong Bearish Factors in Lead Market Trading for Now [SMM Weekly Lead Market Forecast]

SMM March 14 News: Next week, key macroeconomic data will include China's YoY total retail sales of consumer goods for January-February, YoY industrial output above designated size for January-February, and the US February retail sales MoM. Meanwhile, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance and measures to boost consumption. The US Fed FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections. Macroeconomic events will continue to guide the trends of non-ferrous metals.

For LME lead, overseas lead inventory has been declining for three consecutive weeks, with a reduction of 6,150 mt this week (as of March 13). While lead prices rose, the LME lead 0-3 backwardation remained at -$18.53/mt, with fundamentals supporting lead prices to fluctuate upward. Additionally, the US Fed's interest rate decision next week will be closely watched for its impact on commodities. LME lead is expected to trade between $2,045-2,105/mt next week.

For domestic SHFE lead, following the conclusion of China's "Two Sessions," the People's Bank of China held an expanded meeting, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the timing of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. Non-ferrous metals generally strengthened. In March, the lead market showed simultaneous increases in supply and demand, with no significant bearish factors emerging. During this period, heavy pollution weather warnings in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas were lifted, environmental protection inspections were ongoing in Anhui, and new secondary lead capacity in Jiangsu was commissioned as scheduled, leading to temporary fluctuations in supply. Additionally, the lead ingot import window briefly opened, with attention on the actual arrivals of imported crude lead. Before this, lead prices are likely to continue fluctuating upward. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade between 17,350-17,800 yuan/mt next week.

Spot price forecast: 17,200-17,550 yuan/mt. Primary lead production is steadily increasing, while the delivery of the SHFE front-month contract has reduced short-term market circulation, with spot prices expected to maintain a premium. For secondary lead, rising lead prices have improved smelter profits, potentially widening the discount for secondary refined lead. Meanwhile, end-use consumption in the lead-acid battery market remains weak, with production relatively stable. Rising raw material prices for lead, antimony, and tin have increased cost pressure on battery manufacturers, who are purchasing raw materials as needed.