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This week (March 10-14), the weekly average price range of Yangshan copper premiums B/L transactions was $70.4-90/mt, QP April, with an average price of $80.2/mt, up $12.2/mt WoW. Warrants were $45-55/mt, with an average price of $50/mt, up $10.4/mt WoW, QP March. EQ copper CIF B/L was $12-22/mt, with an average price of $17/mt, up $12.6/mt WoW, QP April. As of March 14, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the LME copper to SHFE copper 2503 contract was 8.13, and the import profit/loss was around -1,100 yuan/mt. As of Friday, LME 3M-Mar copper was at C$30.31/mt, and LME 3M-Apr copper was at C$7.91/mt; the spread between February date and March date swaps was C$22/mt.
Currently, the spot warrant price for pyro high-quality copper is $55/mt, mainstream pyro is $50/mt, and hydrometallurgical is $45/mt. High-quality copper B/L is $90/mt, mainstream pyro is around $83/mt, and hydrometallurgical is $76/mt. CIF B/L EQ copper is $15-25/mt, with an average price of $20/mt.
This week, trading activity in the spot market declined significantly. Early in the week, the market continued the short sentiment from last Friday's warrant transactions, but after a large volume of warrant transactions in the bonded zone, the spot market turned quiet. Only a small amount of scattered EQ spot transactions occurred during the week. The offshore market showed a divergence between high premiums and the SHFE/LME price ratio, with downstream consumption lacking support. Additionally, the Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and General Administration of Customs jointly issued a document approving China Copper Southeast Copper Co., Ltd. and Guangxi Nanko Copper Co., Ltd. to carry out processing trade businesses involving imported copper concentrates, copper cathodes, and copper products. Some traders, attracted by high premiums and strong demand in Southeast Asia, actively sought smelters for FOB export sources.
According to the SMM survey, as of Thursday (March 13), copper inventories in domestic bonded zones increased by 8,800 mt WoW to 62,700 mt compared to the previous period (March 6). Among them, Shanghai bonded inventories rose by 8,000 mt WoW to 53,000 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventories increased by 800 mt WoW to 9,700 mt. This week's bonded zone inventory increase was as expected, with reasons similar to previous trends. However, it is worth noting that warrant premiums did not decline despite the continuous inventory buildup in the bonded zone, and market offers and transactions remained firm. Supported by the current SHFE/LME price ratio, bonded zone inventories are expected to continue increasing next week.
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