Today, rebar futures fluctuated downward, closing at 3,252, down 0.67% from the previous trading day. Market sentiment in the spot market remained cautious, with prices softening in some regions and overall transactions being weak. Fundamentally, the Two Sessions have yet to introduce any substantial favorable policies. Concerns over the reduction of crude steel production for the full year of 2025 have resurfaced, and actual implementation remains to be seen.
Supply side, new blast furnace restarts in March outpaced maintenance, leading to a certain increase in pig iron output, while construction steel production also rose. The operating rate of EAF steel mills rebounded to 41.3%. However, according to the SMM survey, the current difficulty in sourcing steel scrap has not improved, and profitability remains poor. Some steel mills have started to incur losses, while those with profits are only marginally profitable, making it difficult for operating rates to increase significantly.
Inventory side, social inventory increased while in-plant inventory decreased this week, resulting in a shift from overall inventory growth to decline, marking a turning point. Looking ahead, demand recovery in northern regions is expected to accelerate in March, and the market holds expectations for the "golden March and silver April." With reduced macro disturbances affecting the market, trading is returning to fundamentals. Given the limited supply increase, the arrival of the inventory turning point, and the need to verify demand strength, construction steel prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound next week. The most-traded rebar contract RB2505 is likely to fluctuate within the range of 3,200-3,340 next week.
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