US PV Faces "Darkest Hour": Sunnova Plunges 71% Overnight, Did Trump Single-Handedly Destroy the Entire Industry?

On Monday Eastern Time, the stock price of US solar energy company Sunnova Energy International Inc. plunged by as much as 71% during intraday trading, triggering a collective "avalanche" in the US PV sector.

Sunnova reported on Monday that its losses last quarter exceeded expectations and warned of significant uncertainty regarding its ability to continue as a going concern. Less than a week earlier, the largest US solar manufacturer, First Solar Inc., also noted increasing delays among its customers. Meanwhile, the largest US residential solar company, Sunrun Inc., stated that it expects installation growth to stagnate this year.

All signs indicate that the US solar industry is currently facing an unprecedented "darkest hour." And the root of all these challenges can be traced back to one person—Trump.

Trump Brings a New Industry Chill

Due to high US interest rates and weakened national incentives, the US PV industry has been persistently sluggish in recent years. With the inauguration of President Trump, his various anti-green energy measures have introduced new risks for developers of large-scale PV projects in the US—such as potential permitting obstacles—casting a new shadow over the outlook for the US PV industry.

Since taking office, Trump has immediately moved to repeal former President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), raising concerns among some investors that the federal financial incentives critical to the PV industry may disappear.

Last week, one of the largest annual events for the US PV industry, Intersolar & Energy Storage North America, was held in San Diego. At the conference, many industry participants expressed concerns that the uncertainties plaguing the industry might persist throughout most of the year.

Tom Starrs, Vice President of Government and Public Affairs at EDP Renewables North America, stated during a panel discussion at the conference:

"The situation will descend into chaos, and it is intentional (by the Trump administration)... Uncertainty brings risk, and risk suppresses new investment."

The Industry Faces a "Darkest Hour"

As global temperatures continue to break records, and with the surge in demand for electricity driven by the artificial intelligence boom, the US may see its largest power demand increase in decades.

Against this backdrop, solar energy should have been regarded as the best solution to meet power demand and limit carbon emissions. However, the Trump administration clearly does not see it that way: they have swiftly acted to position natural gas as the dominant force in power supply growth—a clear blow to the solar industry.

In 2024, US residential solar installations have already declined by nearly 20%, and industry analysts are continuing to lower their forecasts for 2025 installations.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration and Congress are considering actions to cut tax credits for PV companies—funds that are critical to the cash flow of Sunnova and other companies. Additionally, loans and grants provided to these PV companies under the climate legislation signed by Biden have already been frozen.

Melissa Bergsneider, Executive Client Manager at Allume Energy, stated:

"They suddenly lost all the support they previously had."

Nearly everyone in the industry is well aware that the root of all these challenges is just one person—Trump.

According to developers attending the aforementioned conference, their interactions with US government agencies have been poorly received.

Jeff Osborne, an analyst at TD Cowen who also attended the conference, noted that deteriorating government-business relations could slow the progress of PV projects, "This is now the darkest hour related to uncertainty."