[SMM Hot Topic] Export Turmoil, Steel Market Rebalancing in 2025

The Rise of Global Trade Protectionism: Will Steel Exports Face Severe Setbacks?

Exports, 2023-2025, Become a Key Solution to Addressing Overcapacity Imbalance

Since 2022, the supply-demand imbalance in China's steel industry has gradually intensified. Despite the dual pressure of domestic and international policies, exports have remained high.

Source: General Administration of Customs

Steel Export Structure Still Dominated by Sheets & Plates, with a Rapid Increase in HRC Export Proportion

In 2023, China's HRC exports surged by 84%. In 2024, HRC exports maintained a high growth rate of 30%, while other sheet and strip products also performed well in exports.

In 2024, the Proportion of Exports to Vietnam Further Increased

In 2024, China's exports to Vietnam, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Pakistan saw significant growth. Export channels in the Asian region are particularly critical for China.

According to SMM shipping data, steel port departures were busiest in Tianjin, Shanghai, and Hebei.

It is worth noting that there are regional differences in steel customs declarations/invoicing/exports. Over the past two years, "proxy buying" has led to a surge in Guangdong's customs export volume, while actual port shipment levels have remained relatively unchanged.

Since 2024, China Has Faced 113 Anti-Dumping Cases, with 69 Still Under Investigation/Filed/Preliminary Ruling

Since 2024, China's Steel Exports Involved in Anti-Dumping Cases Totaled 31.48 Million mt

Based on the method of aggregating China's 2024 export volumes by anti-dumping product categories and corresponding countries, as of the end of February, China's steel exports involved in anti-dumping cases exceeded 30 million mt.In Terms of Product Categories, HRC Faces the Largest Impact from Anti-Dumping Measures

Based on the method of aggregating China's 2024 export volumes by anti-dumping product categories and corresponding countries, as of the end of February, China's steel exports involved in anti-dumping cases exceeded 30 million mt.In Terms of Regions, Vietnam Faces the Largest Impact from Anti-Dumping Measures

The Rise of Local Capacity in Southeast Asia: How Much Export Space Remains?

In 2024, China's Steel Exports to Southeast Asia Totaled 31.83 Million mt;Southeast Asia Accounts for 38% of China's HRC Exports

Currently, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia Have All Initiated Anti-Dumping Measures Against China, Hindering Sales Channels in Southeast Asia

Source: General Administration of Customs

Southeast Asia's Crude Steel and HRC Capacity Are Rapidly Growing,China's Sheets & Plates Need to "Find New Paths"

Southeast Asia Remains a Major Destination for Steel Exports,

Domestic Demand: Strong Manufacturing Performance; Focus on Q2 Off-Season Impact and Indirect Export Risks

Real Estate Faces a Cliff-Like Decline, Remaining Under Pressure in 2025

Infrastructure Investment Funds Are Gradually Being Allocated,Steel Demand in 2025 Is Expected to Grow

From 2023 to 2025, the Growth Rate of New Energy Power Generation Has Slowed

The Machinery Industry Has Bottomed Out, with Domestic Sales and Exports Driving Growth Simultaneously

New Energy Substitution, Rising Per Capita Ownership, and Export Support.The Automotive Industry Will Maintain Low-Speed Growth

Driven by the Trade-In Policy and Export Support,The Home Appliance Industry Is Thriving in Both Production and Sales

The Shipbuilding Industry Is in a "Boom" Cycle,Order Deliveries Have Been Extended to 2030,New Shipyards Will Gradually Begin Production

Steel Market Rebalancing Amid the Export Storm

Scenario 1: In 2025, Exports (Including Steel Billets) Decline by 16 Million mt, with Slight Growth in Domestic Demand.

Under Market Adjustment, Steel Mills Are Expected to Cut Production by Around 10 Million mt.

Scenario 2: In 2025, Exports (Including Steel Billets) Decline by 28 Million mt, and Indirect Exports Decline by 8 Million mt.

Steel Mills Would Need to Cut Production by Around 30 Million mt.

Scenario 3: Infrastructure Demand Grows Less Than Expected, with Dual Pressure on Domestic and Export Sales.

Steel Mills Would Need to Cut Production by Around 45 Million mt.

Supply Rebalancing Amid Export Contraction in 2025. The HRC Supply Chain Imbalance Will Be the Most Severe.

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