SMM Aluminum Futures Review: alumina prices fluctuate amidst supply-demand tug-of-war, outlook mixed amid geopolitical risks

게시됨: Mar 3, 2025 17:17

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[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review: Tug-of-War in Alumina, Prices Continue to Fluctuate, SHFE Aluminum Market Shows Resonance of Strong Reality and Strong Expectations] Recently, domestic spot alumina prices have stabilized after a decline, mainly supported by short-term export demand and stockpiling for transfer to delivery warehouses. However, the downward trend in overseas prices has squeezed export profit margins. Coupled with the strengthened expectation of new capacity release in the future, medium and long-term prices still face pressure. The current market has entered a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, and short-term prices may maintain a fluctuating trend. Close attention should be paid to the dynamics of export profitability and changes in bauxite cost support. From a macro perspective, additional volatility caused by geopolitical factors (such as changes in tariff policies) should be monitored, but the continued implementation of domestic growth-stabilizing policies may stimulate demand beyond expectations. Considering the characteristics of the industrial cycle, aluminum prices are expected to maintain an upward fluctuating trend at high levels, with the logic of being more likely to rise than fall unlikely to change in the short term.

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