Factors Such as Holidays, Maintenance, and Technological Transformation Resolved, March Primary Lead Production Will Surge Significantly [SMM Analysis]

         SMM February 28 News:In February 2025, China's primary lead production continued its downward trend, decreasing by 4.13 percentage points MoM, while increasing slightly by 0.78 percentage points YoY. Cumulative primary lead production from January to February 2025 declined by 0.21% YoY. 

         It is understood that the Chinese New Year spanned from late January to early February, leading to further declines in primary lead production due to holidays, maintenance, and technological transformation upgrades at smelters. Production has been on a downward trend for three consecutive months. During this period, although lead smelters in Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Yunnan, and Guangdong resumed production after maintenance in January, large and medium-sized smelters in Henan, Hunan, and Yunnan underwent subsequent equipment maintenance, either routine or due to unexpected equipment failures. Additionally, the natural reduction in working days in February (only 28 days) further dragged down primary lead production.

         Looking ahead to March, with the Chinese New Year holiday factors eliminated and an increase in working days (31 days in the calendar month of March), smelters are expected to have more production time compared to the previous month, leading to a certain increase in production. Meanwhile, small and medium-sized lead smelters in Hunan are completing technological transformation upgrades, and large and medium-sized smelters in Yunnan, Guangdong, Hunan, and Jiangxi are finishing maintenance, resulting in a significant overall supply increase. SMM expects primary lead production in March to rise sharply, with an estimated MoM increase of around 23 percentage points.