[SMM HRC Daily Review] Two Sessions Expectations May Be Hard to Fulfill, Next Week's Futures Face Downside Risk

This week, HRC futures prices exhibited an inverted "N" trend, with closing prices remaining relatively stable WoW. On the fundamentals side, some steel mills in North China scheduled new rolling line maintenance this week, leading to a 7,300 mt decline in HRC production WoW. Supply was slightly compressed, while anti-dumping measures dampened market purchasing enthusiasm, marginally weakening both supply and demand. Social inventory accumulation intensified, with steel mills actively shipping products. As a result, total inventory reached 5.9376 million mt, up 54,800 mt WoW. Looking ahead, some steel mills still plan additional maintenance, which may ease supply pressure. With the Two Sessions approaching and the impact of anti-dumping sentiment fading, suppressed end-use demand is expected to recover, and inventory may see a reduction next week. According to the SMM survey, short-term pig iron prices are fluctuating rangebound, and cost support remains uncertain. Overall, HRC supply and demand are in continuous recovery. Next week's trading focus will be on the Two Sessions. Currently, market expectations for domestic policies have declined, and once the outcomes of the Two Sessions are clear, there may be a potential downside. The HC2505 contract is expected to first rise and then fall, fluctuating within the 3,350-3,450 range.