February Secondary Lead Production Fell by Over 65,000 mt MoM; Will Smelters See a Surge in March Amid the Resumption Wave? [SMM Analysis]

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SMM, February 28:

In February 2025, secondary crude lead production dropped significantly, down 23.17% MoM but up 6.08% YoY. Secondary refined lead production fell 24.39% MoM but increased 1.04% YoY.

In January, the strong Chinese New Year atmosphere led downstream battery producers to start their holidays earlier, resulting in weak pre-holiday stockpiling demand. Difficulties in lead ingot transactions, combined with poor profitability, caused an increase in the number of secondary lead smelters reducing or halting production. February production declined by over 65,000 mt compared to January. After the Lantern Festival, secondary lead smelters began resuming production. Due to some large enterprises starting production near month-end and the furnace heating cycle, lead production is expected to reflect in March. Additionally, apart from smelters planning to restart production in March, new secondary lead capacity may gradually come online in March. Currently, newly built large smelters in Guizhou and Jiangsu provinces are stockpiling raw materials to prepare for production trials. Based on the data, secondary lead production in March is expected to increase by over 90,000 mt.