Silicon Wafer Prices Rise, Solar Cell Production Schedule Increases by Approximately 19% [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

Silica

Prices

This week, silica prices remained stable. The demand in the silicon metal market continued to be sluggish. Some silicon plants in south-west China recently reported that the resumption time during this year's rainy season remains uncertain, and there are no plans for raw material inventory replenishment. Therefore, the demand for silica is mainly driven by operating silicon plants in northern China, with overall demand remaining low. Currently, the mine-mouth price for low-grade silica in Yunnan is 330-350 yuan/mt. The mine-mouth price for high-grade silica is 350-380 yuan/mt in Inner Mongolia, 400-450 yuan/mt in Hubei, and 430-460 yuan/mt in Jiangxi.

Production

The overall supply of silica at mine-mouth remains relatively ample.

Demand

Top-tier silicon plants downstream generally have supplementary silica resources, while small and medium-sized silicon plants are operating at low levels. Sentiment among silicon plants in south-west China is pessimistic, with many production resumption plans during the rainy season remaining unclear, and raw material procurement demand temporarily on hold.

Silicon Metal

Prices

This week, spot silicon metal prices continued to decline slightly. In east China, the delivery-to-factory price for above-standard #553 silicon was 10,600-10,700 yuan/mt, with the average price down by 100 yuan/mt WoW. The price for #441 silicon was 11,000-11,200 yuan/mt, also down by 100 yuan/mt WoW. Yesterday, the most-traded SI2505 futures contract for silicon metal fell further, with the low point dropping below 10,300 yuan/mt. The silicon market's transaction sentiment remained weak, and prices stayed under pressure.

Production:

In late February, new production resumption in northern regions led to a slight increase in the overall operating rate of silicon metal. With production release, the total supply of silicon metal in March is expected to increase.

Inventory

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of February 21, the social inventory of silicon metal in some regions of China totaled 546,000 mt, up by 2,000 mt WoW. Among this, general social warehouses held 50,000 mt, up by 1,000 mt WoW, while social delivery warehouses held 396,000 mt (including unregistered warehouse warrants and spot cargo), up by 1,000 mt WoW. (This inventory data excludes regions such as Inner Mongolia and Ningxia.)

Silicon Wafer

Prices

The market price for N-type 18X silicon wafers was 1.18-1.2 yuan/piece, while the price for N-type 210RN silicon wafers was 1.3-1.35 yuan/piece. Silicon wafer prices increased, with top-tier enterprises leading the price adjustments, which will officially take effect next week.

Production

In February, silicon wafer production continued to increase. However, March production schedules are expected to be significantly impacted by industry self-discipline, with production schedules falling short of market supply and demand expectations. The MoM change in production schedules from February is expected to be limited.

Inventory

Recently, some transactions for silicon wafers have been completed, with an increase in order signing. Inventory saw a slight pullback.

Solar Cell

Prices

The price for high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells (efficiency of 23.2% and above) was 0.325-0.33 yuan/W, with high-end prices slightly declining. There were no transactions in the PERC210 solar cell market. The price for Topcon183 solar cells (efficiency of 25% and above) was around 0.29 yuan/W, while Topcon210RN solar cells were priced at 0.29 yuan/W, and Topcon210 solar cells were priced at 0.29-0.295 yuan/W, with prices slightly increasing. The mainstream price for HJT210 half-cell products was 0.36-0.38 yuan/W, with prices remaining stable.

Production

In March, the supply side of solar cells is expected to increase significantly, with production schedules rising by approximately 19%, mainly driven by growing demand.

Inventory

Following the confirmation of new orders, solar cell shipments began to grow, and inventory showed a downward trend.

PV Film

Prices

PV-Grade EVA: The transaction price for PV-grade EVA was 11,300-11,650 yuan/mt. The domestic delivery-to-factory price for PV-grade POE was approximately 12,000-14,000 yuan/mt, with POE prices remaining stable.

PV Film

Currently, the mainstream price for 420g transparent EVA film is 5.29-5.46 yuan/m², for 420g white EVA film is 5.67-6.05 yuan/m², for 380g EPE film is 5.79-5.89 yuan/m², and for 380g POE film is 6.84-7.22 yuan/m².

Production

In February, the planned production of PV-grade EVA was approximately 1.1 million mt, while the planned production of PV film was approximately 340 million m².

Inventory

Currently, petrochemical enterprises have low inventory levels. With the increase in module production, the demand for EVA is expected to grow significantly. On the supply side, due to maintenance and planned production shifts, supply is expected to decrease, keeping inventory levels low.