The Stalemate Between Bulls and Bears Remains Unchanged, Lead Futures Maintain Fluctuating Trend [SMM Lead Morning Brief]

SMM February 27:

Overnight, LME lead opened at a low of $1,998/mt and fluctuated upward during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it climbed to a high of $2,024/mt but came under pressure and fluctuated downward to a low of $1,988/mt due to the US dollar fluctuating at highs. It slightly rebounded at the close, ending at $2,003.5/mt, up 0.17%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2504 contract opened at 17,160 yuan/mt. With bears reducing positions, SHFE lead initially touched a high of 17,195 yuan/mt before fluctuating downward to a low of 17,125 yuan/mt. It slightly rebounded at the close, ending at 17,175 yuan/mt, up 0.15%.

Recently, several secondary lead smelters reported good arrivals of scrap batteries, resulting in ample raw material inventory. Additionally, some companies are expected to increase production in March, suggesting that raw material prices may still fluctuate at highs. Currently, in-plant inventory of lead ingots is gradually depleting, but social inventory remains high. From the perspective of actual end-user consumption, in the post-holiday e-bike and automotive battery markets, although dealers engaged in a brief period of post-holiday restocking as usual, the restocking volume for batteries was lower than in previous years, and purchases were relatively scattered, with limited improvement in producer orders. At present, downstream lead ingot procurement remains primarily demand-driven, with overall consumption showing average performance. In summary, short-term lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.