February 24 Nickel Morning Meeting Summary
Refined Nickel:
Last week, nickel prices showed a fluctuating downward trend overall. Spot prices ranged between 123,200-127,300 yuan/mt, while SHFE nickel futures prices fluctuated between 123,300 yuan/mt and 126,300 yuan/mt. The mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan No.1 nickel were quoted in the range of 1,700-2,100 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 1,850 yuan/mt, down WoW. Market trading activity was low, and insufficient release of end-use demand from downstream sectors exerted pressure on nickel prices. On the macro front, Fed Chairman Powell's cautious stance on interest rate cuts weighed on base metals, while the upcoming Two Sessions in China also prompted investors to adopt a cautious attitude. In terms of nickel ore supply, Indonesia approved 207 RKABs, with a 2025 quota of 298 million wmt. Mine shipments proceeded normally, but miners showed strong reluctance to sell due to the rainy season. The domestic trade average price of 1.2% grade laterite nickel ore rose to $23.5/wmt, while the CIF price of 1.4% grade nickel ore from the Philippines remained firm at $45.75/mt. Despite tight nickel ore supply, the refined nickel market still faced surplus pressure. China's refined nickel production in February was expected to reach 29,000 mt, down 0.4% MoM, while domestic and overseas inventory levels remained high. As of February 14, refined nickel social inventory in six major regions in China reached 49,459 mt, up 10.67% MoM. The divergence between supply and demand persisted, and downstream smelters might engage in concentrated stockpiling after consuming raw material inventories. In the short term, nickel prices were expected to fluctuate rangebound, with SHFE nickel prices likely to move within the range of 123,150-130,000 yuan/mt.
Nickel Sulphate:
Last week, SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,588 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 26,400-27,060 yuan/mt, and the average price declined WoW. Throughout the week, nickel salt prices remained stable overall, with only a slight dip on February 18. This week, the nickel salt market showed signs of weakness, with both demand and supply sides under pressure. Demand side, ternary cathode precursor companies experienced reduced orders due to weakened end-use demand, leading to lower demand for nickel salts. Most precursor manufacturers had stocked sufficient inventory for February before the holiday, resulting in fewer inquiries in the market this week. Market transaction activity weakened further compared to last week, remaining at low levels. Supply side, some nickel salt smelters had not resumed production due to losses, and most nickel salt smelters maintained stable quotations compared to last week, with spot order transactions remaining sluggish. LME nickel prices showed a fluctuating trend this week, providing limited cost support for nickel salts. Overall, traditional procurement periods had not yet arrived, and market activity remained relatively low, with the supply-demand relationship in a tight balance.
As downstream ternary cathode precursor plants showed no improvement in their March production schedules, demand for nickel salts in March was expected to remain low. Currently, the supply-demand relationship for nickel salts was anticipated to stay in a tight balance in March. Therefore, during the traditional nickel salt procurement period next week, market transaction prices were expected to remain stable.
Nickel Pig Iron (NPI):
During the week, SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 968.8 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 12.1 yuan/mtu WoW. The Indonesian NPI FOB index rose $1.8/mtu WoW. This week, high-grade NPI prices continued to rise. Supply side, domestically, NPI smelters were still operating at a loss, and domestic production remained at low levels. In Indonesia, some production areas experienced low-load operations due to changes in production management, while other smelters still had some profits, maintaining production momentum. Overall production was expected to decline. Demand side, the downstream stainless steel market resumed operations after the holiday, with market sentiment gradually improving. However, due to sufficient raw material stockpiling by stainless steel mills in the earlier period, their purchase willingness for high-grade NPI was weak during the week. Cost side, rising premiums for Indonesian nickel ore were expected to provide cost support, and high-grade NPI prices were anticipated to remain relatively stable with a strong trend in the short term.
Stainless Steel:
Last week, the stainless steel futures market experienced fluctuations, showing a trend of initial decline followed by a rebound. Early in the week, the market was dominated by cautious sentiment. On February 17, stainless steel futures closed at 13,045 yuan/mt, down 0.15% from the previous day, with a cumulative five-day decline of 0.95%. However, in the latter half of the week, the market sentiment shifted. On February 21, the closing price rose to 13,230 yuan/mt, up 0.38% on the day, with a cumulative five-day increase of 1.07%.
