Rare Earth Prices Jump Initially and Then Pull Back: Is There Still Room for Further Increases? [SMM Analysis]

SMM, February 21: This week, rare earth prices fluctuated significantly. Starting from the 17th, the Pr-Nd market showed an overall weak trend, with the actual transaction price of Pr-Nd oxide dropping to 432,000-433,000 yuan/mt. As top-tier enterprises increased their purchases, low-priced supplies decreased. However, the actual transaction performance of downstream products remained poor, and the actual transaction price of Pr-Nd alloy fell below 530,000 yuan/mt on the 19th. Although the market remained stable, expectations for the short-term trend were generally pessimistic.

On the evening of the 19th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released the "Interim Measures for the Total Volume Control and Management of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting Separation (Draft for Public Comment)" and the "Interim Measures for the Traceability Management of Rare Earth Products (Draft for Public Comment)," which attracted widespread attention both within and outside the industry. On February 20, market confidence recovered, and suppliers significantly increased their quotes. Low-priced supplies tightened rapidly, and the actual transaction price of Pr-Nd oxide rose by 2.4% in a single day. However, excessively high quotes triggered market concerns, leading to a significant increase in supplier shipments. At the same time, the release of terminal orders remained insufficient, and the willingness to purchase high-priced raw materials was weak. As a result, most downstream buyers adopted a wait-and-see attitude. From the afternoon of the 20th, Pr-Nd prices showed a trend of jumping initially and then pulling back. As of today, the actual transaction price of Pr-Nd oxide has pulled back to 440,000 yuan/mt.

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At the beginning of the week, rare earth downstream buyers mainly restocked based on rigid demand. Although upstream producers showed a clear sentiment to stand firm on quotes, the poor order-taking performance of downstream magnetic material enterprises caused the price center of metal products to shift downward. By the end of the week, the release of new documents significantly boosted confidence in the rare earth market's future price trends. However, the rapid rise in rare earth prices also triggered concerns among both upstream and downstream players. Although some traders lowered prices to ship goods under these circumstances, the price reductions were very limited. In the short term, rare earth prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound amid intense bargaining between upstream and downstream players. However, from a longer-term perspective, rare earth prices still have upside room.