The Two Sessions Are Expected to Drive Recent Iron Ore Prices to Fluctuate at High Levels [SMM Commentary]

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Today, Dalian iron ore futures continued to fluctuate upward, with the most-traded I2505 contract closing at 838.5 yuan/mt, up 1.51% for the day. Traders actively sold cargoes, while some steel mills locked in profits, showing moderate purchase willingness. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were 830-835 yuan/mt, up 1-5 yuan/mt from yesterday. In Tangshan, PB fines traded at around 840-845 yuan/mt, basically flat compared to yesterday.
As of February 21, SMM data showed that total inventory at 35 ports fell to 149.18 million mt, down 370,000 mt WoW. Next week, due to the impact of previous shipments, port arrivals may slightly decline, and port inventory still has the potential for destocking. Coupled with the approaching Two Sessions, the market remains optimistic about favorable policies. However, considering that current iron ore prices are at a high level, there is significant resistance to further upward movement. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels next week.