Weekly Operating Rates Exceed Expectations but Fail to Conceal Weakness; "Passive Inventory Buildup" Pressure Emerges in the Copper Cathode Rod Industry [SMM Weekly Review on Copper Cathode Rod Production]

게시됨: Feb 21, 2025 10:49

 

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       Copper Cathode Rod: The weekly operating rate of major domestic copper cathode rod enterprises (2.14-2.20) increased as expected to 74.25%, up 12.15 percentage points MoM, 1.01 percentage points higher than the forecast. On a YoY basis, the operating rate in the third week after the Chinese New Year (based on the lunar calendar) slightly declined by 0.09 percentage points. Excluding the impact of production halts during the Chinese New Year holiday, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises rebounded MoM. However, this week’s consumption was still significantly constrained by copper price fluctuations and weak end-use consumption. Downstream cargo pick-up showed a noticeable recovery only when copper prices fell on Monday and Tuesday, but new orders were again suppressed as copper prices rose. Meanwhile, the slow recovery of end-use consumption further hindered the pace of downstream cargo pick-up, making the destocking process for copper cathode rod enterprises remain sluggish. In terms of specific inventory, spot prices fell to a discount after delivery. With raw material stockpiling by some large enterprises, the raw material inventory of major domestic copper cathode rod plants increased by 9.61% MoM to 53,050 mt. Amid gradual destocking, the finished product inventory of copper cathode rod plants continued to decrease by 7.26% MoM to 58,800 mt. Looking ahead, the current destocking process for copper cathode rod enterprises faces obstacles, with varying levels of finished product inventory pressure and production plans among enterprises. The weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises is expected to remain relatively stable next week at 74.55%, up 0.30 percentage points MoM and 3.23 percentage points YoY.

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