Long-Short Information Game, Zinc Prices Mainly Fluctuate [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,884/mt. In early trading, a tug-of-war between longs and shorts caused LME zinc to fluctuate around the daily moving average, with the bulls gaining the upper hand as LME zinc fluctuated upward. During European trading hours, it peaked at $2,900/mt, but was subsequently targeted by bears at high levels, driving LME zinc downward to a low of $2,857.5/mt. By the end of the session, the center fluctuated around $2,870/mt, closing down at $2,874.5/mt, a decrease of $15/mt or 0.52%. Trading volume increased to 9,191 lots, and open interest rose by 629 lots to 224,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 5-day moving average providing support below. The potential impact of Trump's policies has raised concerns within the US Fed about rising inflation, pushing the US dollar index higher and causing zinc prices to jump initially and then pull back.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2504 contract opened at 23,940 yuan/mt. After briefly consolidating around the daily moving average in early trading, increased short positions pressured SHFE zinc to quickly decline, with the center shifting downward to around 23,880 yuan/mt. By the end of the session, longs entered at lower levels, driving SHFE zinc upward for a correction. It ultimately closed down at 23,935 yuan/mt, a decrease of 30 yuan/mt or 0.13%. Trading volume decreased to 31,343 lots, while open interest increased by 1,106 lots to 66,606 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a small bearish candlestick, with the KDJ indicator narrowing. Currently, macro sentiment remains relatively positive, which contrasts with expectations of a shift to surplus on the mining side. Zinc prices currently lack clear direction and are primarily fluctuating.