2.17Nickel Morning Meeting Summary
Refined Nickel:
Last week, nickel prices continued to decline, with spot prices fluctuating between 124,100-129,150 yuan/mt, while SHFE nickel futures prices ranged from 123,000 yuan/mt to 127,950 yuan/mt.
Market reports indicated that Indonesia has approved a 2025 nickel ore quota of 290 million mt, but officials from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources expect actual production to reach only 220 million mt, falling short of market expectations. Officials mentioned controlling nickel ore production to raise prices and ensure profitability for the domestic nickel industry, providing some support for nickel prices. Additionally, the Philippines is attempting to emulate Indonesia's "ore export ban" policy. Although the short-term impact is limited, it has raised concerns about future supply, leading to a brief increase in nickel prices at the beginning of this week.
Fundamentally, on the supply side, most plants are operating at partial capacity after the holiday, and February refined nickel production is expected to decline slightly MoM, though overall supply remains ample. On the demand side, although downstream demand is gradually recovering, overall transactions remain sluggish, and market procurement enthusiasm is low.
As of February 14, the premium for Jinchuan brand nickel ranged from 2,000-2,100 yuan/mt, with an average of 2,050 yuan/mt. With the Two Sessions approaching, market sentiment is expected to dominate premium trends next week, potentially causing slight fluctuations.
In summary, while policy uncertainties in Indonesia and the Philippines provide some support for prices, weak demand limits the upward potential for nickel prices, and the supply-demand surplus persists. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to continue fluctuating at low levels. Investors should monitor the implementation of Indonesian policies and the actual recovery of downstream demand. Spot nickel prices are expected to fluctuate between 124,400-130,100 yuan/mt, and futures prices are expected to range from 124,500-128,000 yuan/mt.
Nickel Sulphate:
Last week,SMMbattery-grade nickel sulphate index prices stood at 26,598 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate between 26,400-27,080 yuan/mt, and the average price remained flat WoW.
This week, the nickel salt market maintained a stable trend overall. On the demand side, most ternary cathode precursor plants had completed stocking nickel salt raw materials for February before the Chinese New Year. Although some manufacturers still have minor restocking needs, market activity this week was low, with inquiries dominating and overall transactions remaining sluggish. On the supply side, due to losses, some nickel salt smelters have not resumed production, resulting in ongoing production losses. Nickel salt smelters have shown no signs of price concessions, with strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Additionally, the immediate production costs of MHP and high-grade nickel matte declined WoW. Producing nickel sulphate using high-grade nickel matte has become profitable, while production using MHP and yellow residue still faces varying degrees of losses. As next week marks a procurement period for nickel salts, there remains some restocking demand for February, and raw material procurement for March will gradually begin next week. Prices are expected to strengthen slightly in the near term.
Considering all factors, the nickel salt market showed stable performance on both supply and demand sides this week, with strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes among nickel salt smelters. Prices are likely to rise slightly in the short term.
Nickel Pig Iron:
Last week,
the weekly average price of SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI was 956.7 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 12.5 yuan/mtu WoW, while the Indonesian NPI FOB index rose by $1.6/mtu WoW. This week, high-grade NPI prices saw an expanded increase. On the supply side, domestically, domestic smelters are still operating at a loss, with weak production motivation, and output is expected to remain at low levels. In Indonesia, production declined due to weather conditions and reduced production loads at smelters in certain regions. On the demand side, stainless steel spot prices performed poorly, and market transactions were sluggish. Stainless steel mills showed little interest in high-grade NPI inquiries. However, driven by concentrated procurement from traders, the market center shifted upward, and high-grade NPI prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term.
Stainless Steel:
Last week,SSmost-traded 2505 futures contract prices showed a downward fluctuation trend overall. The opening price on Monday was 13,170 yuan/mt, dropping to the week's lowest point of 13,000 yuan/mt on Wednesday before rebounding slightly and closing at 13,085 yuan/mt on Friday. Fundamentally, after the Lantern Festival, the market has largely exited the Chinese New Year holiday mode, but transactions remain at low levels. Traders were cautious in procurement, while steel mills continued to deliver goods, with shipments arriving at ports, leading to a continuous increase in social inventory. Currently, the stainless steel market still exhibits a supply-strong, demand-weak pattern. Downstream demand remains sluggish, and market inventory digestion is challenging. However, supported by raw material prices, stainless steel prices face downward pressure but with limited declines.
