Overseas Alumina Prices Decline Less Than Domestic Prices, Alumina Export Window Gradually Opens [SMM Analysis]

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Feb 14, 2025 16:49
SMM, February 14:

Since mid-December 2024, spot alumina prices both domestically and internationally have started to decline. Overseas, as of February 14, the FOB price of Western Australian alumina dropped to $538/mt, down by $272/mt from the December 2024 peak of $810/mt, equivalent to approximately 2,000 yuan/mt. Domestically, as of February 14, the SMM alumina index fell to 3,356 yuan/mt, a cumulative decrease of 2,413 yuan/mt from the December 2024 peak. Overall, in the past two months, the decline in overseas alumina prices has been less significant than that in the domestic market, leading to an expanded loss margin for alumina imports and the gradual opening of the domestic alumina export window.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
๊ตญ๋‚ด 1์ฐจ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์ž…, 2026๋…„ 5์›” ํ˜ผ์กฐ์„ธ ๋ณด์—ฌ
10์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๊ตญ๋‚ด 1์ฐจ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์ž…, 2026๋…„ 5์›” ํ˜ผ์กฐ์„ธ ๋ณด์—ฌ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๊ตญ๋‚ด 1์ฐจ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์ž…, 2026๋…„ 5์›” ํ˜ผ์กฐ์„ธ ๋ณด์—ฌ
๊ตญ๋‚ด 1์ฐจ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์ž…, 2026๋…„ 5์›” ํ˜ผ์กฐ์„ธ ๋ณด์—ฌ
1์ฐจ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ˆ˜์ž…๏ผš ๊ด€์„ธ์ฒญ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด 2026๋…„ 5์›” ๊ตญ๋‚ด 1์ฐจ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ˆ˜์ž…๋Ÿ‰์€ ์•ฝ 20๋งŒ 8,000ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ „์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ 21.6% ๊ฐ์†Œ, ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 6.7% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 2026๋…„ 1์›”๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 5์›”๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ตญ๋‚ด 1์ฐจ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๋ˆ„์  ์ˆ˜์ž…๋Ÿ‰์€ ์•ฝ 111๋งŒ 9,000ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 5.8% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 1์ฐจ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ˆ˜์ถœ๏ผš ๊ด€์„ธ์ฒญ ํ†ต๊ณ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด 2026๋…„ 5์›” ๊ตญ๋‚ด 1์ฐจ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ˆ˜์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์•ฝ 2๋งŒ 2,000ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ „์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ 42.4% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 31.7% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 2026๋…„ 1์›”๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 5์›”๊นŒ์ง€ 1์ฐจ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๋ˆ„์  ์ˆ˜์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์•ฝ 7๋งŒ 6,000ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ ์•ฝ 13.1% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋‚˜ FOB ์„œํ˜ธ์ฃผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ†ค๋‹น 330๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ, ์ „ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋Œ€๋น„ 16.2๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ƒ์Šน
11์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋‚˜ FOB ์„œํ˜ธ์ฃผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ†ค๋‹น 330๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ, ์ „ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋Œ€๋น„ 16.2๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ƒ์Šน
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋‚˜ FOB ์„œํ˜ธ์ฃผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ†ค๋‹น 330๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ, ์ „ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋Œ€๋น„ 16.2๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ƒ์Šน
์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋‚˜ FOB ์„œํ˜ธ์ฃผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ†ค๋‹น 330๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ, ์ „ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋Œ€๋น„ 16.2๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ƒ์Šน
์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋‚˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜: 2026๋…„ 6์›” 25์ผ, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋‚˜ 3๋งŒ ํ†ค์ด ํ†ค๋‹น 330๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(FOB ์›จ์Šคํ„ด์˜ค์ŠคํŠธ๋ ˆ์ผ๋ฆฌ์•„, 8์›” ์„ ์ ๋ถ„)์— ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋จ. ์ด์ „ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Š” 5์›” 20์ผ(๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ†ค๋‹น 313.8๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ, FOB ์›จ์Šคํ„ด์˜ค์ŠคํŠธ๋ ˆ์ผ๋ฆฌ์•„, 6์›” ์„ ์ ๋ถ„) ๋Œ€๋น„ ํ†ค๋‹น 16.2๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ƒ์Šน.
11์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๊ตญ๋‚ด ํ•ญ๋งŒ, ๋ณดํฌ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์žฌ๊ณ  16๋งŒ ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œ
11์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๊ตญ๋‚ด ํ•ญ๋งŒ, ๋ณดํฌ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์žฌ๊ณ  16๋งŒ ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๊ตญ๋‚ด ํ•ญ๋งŒ, ๋ณดํฌ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์žฌ๊ณ  16๋งŒ ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œ
๊ตญ๋‚ด ํ•ญ๋งŒ, ๋ณดํฌ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์žฌ๊ณ  16๋งŒ ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œ
ใ€SMM ํ•ญ๋งŒ ์ˆ˜์ž… ๋ณดํฌ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์žฌ๊ณ ใ€‘SMM 6์›” 26์ผ ํ†ต๊ณ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ๊ตญ๋‚ด 10๊ฐœ ํ•ญ๋งŒ์˜ ๋ณดํฌ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ด ์žฌ๊ณ ๋Ÿ‰์ด ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 16๋งŒ ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „