Overseas Alumina Prices Decline Less Than Domestic Prices, Alumina Export Window Gradually Opens [SMM Analysis]

SMM, February 14:

Starting from mid-December 2024, domestic and international spot alumina prices began to decline successively.

Overseas, the transaction frequency of spot alumina has been moderate in the past two months, with a total of 21 transactions recorded since December 10. Transaction prices have shown a significant downward trend overall. As of February 14, the FOB price of Western Australian alumina dropped to $538/mt, down $272/mt from the December 2024 peak of $810/mt, equivalent to approximately 2,000 yuan/mt.

Domestically, as of February 14, the SMM alumina index fell to 3,356 yuan/mt, down 2,413 yuan/mt from the December 2024 peak. Overall, in the past two months, the decline in overseas alumina prices was less pronounced than domestically, leading to an expansion in alumina import losses and the gradual opening of the domestic alumina export window.

Based on the recent spot transaction price of alumina in northern China at 3,300 yuan/mt, assuming combined port and miscellaneous fees of around 200 yuan/mt, the domestic FOB price for alumina exports is approximately 3,500 yuan/mt, equivalent to about $480/mt, which is lower than the recent FOB transaction price of Western Australian alumina. From a theoretical perspective, the alumina export window has essentially opened, and further attention is needed on the impact of alumina exports on the domestic alumina market fundamentals.

(The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not replace independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)

Data source: SMM Click on the SMM industry database for more information

(Mingxin Guo 021-51595800)