Sudden Contraction in Date Structure During February-March, SHFE/LME Price Ratio Diverges with No Price or Transactions in the Spot Market [SMM Yangshan Spot Copper]

February 14, 2025: Today's warehouse warrant prices were $54-68/mt, QP March, with an average price down by $2/mt compared to the previous trading day; B/L prices were $52-70/mt, QP March, with an average price down by $2/mt compared to the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $2-16/mt, QP March, with an average price down by $2/mt compared to the previous trading day. The quotations referenced cargoes arriving in late February and early March.

During the day, the SHFE/LME price ratio for the SHFE copper 2503 contract was around -750 yuan/mt, LME copper 3M-Mar was at C$49.46/mt, and the February 2502 to March 2503 date spread was around C$0/mt. Overnight, the LME nearby structure narrowed significantly, while the SHFE/LME price ratio deteriorated rapidly. In the early session, suppliers mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, with market transactions being very sluggish and spot cargoes difficult to find quotations for.

Currently, the actual transaction price for pyro high-quality copper warehouse warrants is $68/mt, mainstream pyro copper is $61/mt, and wet-process copper is $54/mt; high-quality copper B/L is $70/mt, mainstream pyro copper is around $61/mt, and wet-process copper is $52/mt; CIF B/L EQ copper is $2-16/mt, with an average price of $9/mt.