迎接“531”再度掀起的抢装潮，组件价格或将上涨2-3 cents/W?

According to industry sources, several dealers have indicated that major PV module producers are preparing for price increases, with a range of 0.02 yuan/W to 0.03 yuan/W. In response, Polaris conducted a survey of some module companies. A few top-tier enterprises confirmed the situation, while others explicitly stated that they currently have no plans to adjust prices, with the overall attitude of the companies being one of observation.

The main driver of this new round of module price increases is the "Notice on Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of New Energy On-Grid Tariffs to Promote High-Quality Development of New Energy" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice") issued by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration on February 9.

PV Faces Another Rush for Installations

According to the "Notice," the on-grid electricity generated by wind and solar power will, in principle, fully enter the electricity market, with on-grid tariffs formed through market transactions. For electricity included in the mechanism, the portion of the market transaction price that is lower or higher than the mechanism tariff will be settled by power grid enterprises according to regulations, with the settlement costs included in the local system operation costs, i.e., "refunds for overcharges and supplements for undercharges."

The "Notice" stipulates that June 1, 2025, will serve as the period dividing new and existing projects. For existing projects commissioned before June 1, 2025, tariff differences will be settled to ensure proper alignment with current policies. The electricity volume will be aligned with existing policies that guarantee relevant electricity volumes. Within the scale, new energy projects will independently determine the proportion of electricity subject to the mechanism each year, but it must not exceed the previous year's proportion. The mechanism tariff will follow current pricing policies and will not exceed the local benchmark price for coal-fired power.

This means that projects connected to the grid before June 1 can enjoy more "guaranteed" tariffs, which will fall between the local desulfurized coal benchmark tariff and the spot price.

For incremental projects commissioned on or after June 1, 2025, the electricity volume included in the mechanism will be dynamically adjusted based on the completion of new energy development targets set by the state for each region. The mechanism tariff will be determined through market-based bidding by each region.

This indicates that for projects connected to the grid after June 1, the revenue calculation model will undergo significant changes. Following the release of the document, there is still no clear understanding among stakeholders regarding the actual settlement tariff calculation method for projects. Considering the operational challenges, completing grid connection before June 1 is seen as a safer and more prudent option, leading to another "531" rush for installations in the PV sector.

Regarding distributed PV projects, only Shandong and Hebei have introduced policies for distributed PV power generation to enter the market. Industry insiders analyzed that before June, relevant provinces will likely continue implementing current provincial policies. Afterward, they may formulate specific implementation details in line with national policies, such as clarifying whether rooftop PV projects will have special policies and the bidding model for distributed projects.

However, to avoid complex revenue calculations and market bidding rules, some distributed projects with better investment returns are also highly likely to participate in the "531" rush for installations.

Other industry insiders suggested that for distributed PV projects entering the market, the strategy of prioritizing commercial projects over household PV projects may continue. Household PV projects may be the last to enter the market and may not necessarily participate in this rush for installations.

Can Modules Achieve the Desired Price Increase?

The rush for installations in H1 has created an atmosphere for module price increases, but whether modules can achieve the expected price increase remains a topic of differing opinions. Observations from social media show that some dealers are still promoting modules, covering brands across multiple tiers. Currently, second- and third-tier companies are observing the actions of top-tier enterprises, with a tendency of "if you raise prices, so will we." However, some companies believe that it depends on end-use demand and caution against being overly optimistic.

On one hand, 2025 marks the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. According to statistics from Polaris Solar PV Network, nine regions have yet to meet their targets, with Shanxi and Guizhou each falling short by over 10 GW. These regions may accelerate the advancement of PV projects in 2025.

On the other hand, considering the comprehensive market entry policy for new energy projects, the revenue calculation model for PV project investments has undergone significant changes, potentially affecting companies' investment willingness.

Considering the supply and demand situation, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association previously analyzed that the annual capacity of all PV segments currently exceeds 1,100 GW, while the optimistic demand for the global and Chinese PV markets in 2025 is only 600 GW and 250 GW, respectively. The supply-demand imbalance remains unresolved.

From the perspective of the industry chain prices, the polysilicon market price remains stable. According to the Silicon Industry Association, downstream wafer companies are expected to increase their production schedules, leading to a steady growth in polysilicon demand. However, the increase in wafer production schedules carries the risk of converting into inventory, making it challenging to maintain prices in the short term. The acceptance of continuous price increases for polysilicon remains weak.

Data from the January module centralised procurement winning bids this year shows that the average winning bid price for n-type modules was approximately 0.696 yuan/W, a slight increase MoM. The recently announced winning bid results for CGN New Energy's 2025 PV module equipment framework procurement package 1 (sections 2, 3, and 4) indicate module winning bid prices ranging from 0.695 to 0.706 yuan/W.

As for whether PV module prices will continue to rise, the upcoming bidding for the Datang module centralised procurement project may provide insights into the trend.