EMM Plants Reluctant to Sell and Stand Firm on Quotes; Spot Market Fluctuates Upward [SMM Analysis]

SMM, February 8:

The average spot price of domestic EMM (main production areas) in January 2025 was 12,433.33 yuan/mt, up 1.0% MoM. The monthly average FOB price of EMM was $1,715.56/mt, up 1.1% MoM.

Market side: Supply side, due to production pressure and equipment maintenance, some EMM plants reduced or halted production, leading to a decrease in overall EMM production. In late January, as the Chinese New Year approached, freight cost increases heightened the sentiment to stand firm on quotes among EMM plants, driving EMM prices to fluctuate upward. Demand side, downstream buyers showed increased enthusiasm for EMM procurement before the holiday due to stockpiling needs. Overall, supported by the sentiment to stand firm on quotes among EMM holders and just-in-time procurement from downstream buyers, EMM spot prices fluctuated upward in January.

Entering February 2025, EMM prices are expected to continue fluctuating upward. Supply side, some EMM plants plan to conduct equipment maintenance after the Chinese New Year. Additionally, as February is a shorter calendar month, overall EMM production is expected to decrease. Demand side, with other manganese alloy prices continuing to fluctuate upward, downstream buyers may prefer to procure EMM. In summary, the imbalance of EMM oversupply has eased, and EMM prices are expected to continue fluctuating upward in the future.

Export side, according to SMM, influenced by the continued upward fluctuation of domestic EMM prices, exporters maintained firm overseas quotes for EMM, with FOB prices rising slightly. Before the Chinese New Year, downstream steel mills showed weak enthusiasm for EMM procurement, focusing on inventory digestion. Entering February, overseas steel mills are expected to restock EMM. Supported by downstream demand, EMM FOB prices are expected to fluctuate upward.

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