This week, construction steel spot prices remained relatively stable. After the Chinese New Year holiday, market merchants gradually resumed operations, but downstream end-use demand is expected to recover gradually around the Lantern Festival. Under weak demand, the futures market fluctuated, and market merchants remained cautious, resulting in limited transactions during the week. On the supply side, the current profitability of blast furnace steel mills is moderate, and a new round of coke price cuts has begun, leading to expectations for production increase. EAF steel mills have gradually resumed production since February 7, resulting in a slight short-term increase in construction steel supply, though supply levels remain relatively low YoY. In terms of inventory, according to the SMM survey, the national rebar inventory in the first week after the holiday stood at 6.6117 million mt, up 2.1327 million mt from pre-holiday levels (up 47.62% MoM) but down 32.64% YoY on a lunar calendar basis, with inventory remaining at a low YoY level. On the demand side, downstream end-use demand is expected to recover gradually around the Lantern Festival. Before that, market transactions are heavily influenced by sentiment. Currently, low production and low inventory provide some support for spot prices. Iron ore prices showed slight strength, and driven by this and market expectations for price increases, construction steel spot prices are expected to fluctuate upward next week. The most-traded rebar RB2505 futures contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 3,300-3,450 next week.
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