First Trading Day of the Year of the Snake: Copper Prices Expected to Have Limited Gains [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

SMM, February 5: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,134.5/mt, rose slightly at the beginning of the session before fluctuating downward, hitting a low of $9,103.5/mt. It then climbed steadily, reaching an intraday high of $9,185/mt, but the center edged lower towards the end of the session, finally closing at $9,174/mt, up 0.7%. Trading volume reached 15,000 lots, and open interest stood at 282,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2503 contract was closed overnight. Macro side, the US previously delayed imposing import tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, easing trade tensions. However, concerns over trade tensions and global economic growth persist. Meanwhile, US job vacancies hit their lowest level since September last year, and December's factory orders recorded the largest monthly decline since June 2024. Weak data led to a decline in the US dollar, providing some support to LME copper, though gains were limited amid concerns over demand prospects. Fundamentally, copper social inventory increased before the holiday. According to downstream enterprises, many companies started operations later than usual or had pre-holiday stockpiling for post-holiday production. Overall consumption is expected to recover gradually. In summary, on the first trading day after the holiday, copper prices are expected to see limited gains.