Spot Alumina Transaction Price in North China Narrowed Its Decline, While Spot Alumina in South China Accelerated Its Drop, Narrowing the Price Difference Between North and South China [SMM Weekly Alumina Review]

SMM, January 23:

Price Review:

As of this Thursday, the SMM regional weighted index stood at 4,096 yuan/mt, down 602 yuan/mt WoW. Among them, Shanxi reported 4,000-4,100 yuan/mt, down 600 yuan/mt WoW; Henan reported 3,900-4,000 yuan/mt, down 600 yuan/mt WoW; Shanxi reported 3,900-4,100 yuan/mt, down 550 yuan/mt WoW; Guangxi reported 4,300-4,500 yuan/mt, down 700 yuan/mt WoW; Guizhou reported 4,300-4,400 yuan/mt, down 700 yuan/mt WoW; Bayuquan reported 4,960-5,040 yuan/mt.

Overseas Market:

As of January 23, 2025, FOB Western Australia alumina prices were $573/mt, with ocean freight rates at $19.95/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.30. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 4,972 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, 876 yuan/mt higher than domestic alumina prices, keeping the alumina import window closed. This week, one new overseas spot alumina transaction was recorded: on January 17, 30,000 mt of alumina was transacted at $570.01/mt FOB Gladstone, Australia (Eastern Australia), with shipment scheduled for late February.

Domestic Market:

According to SMM data, as of this Thursday, the national weekly operating rate of alumina increased by 0.04 percentage points WoW to 87.29%. Among them, the weekly operating rate of alumina in Shandong rose by 1.89 percentage points WoW to 94.01%; in Shanxi, it decreased by 0.8 percentage points WoW to 80.60%; in Henan, it decreased by 0.83 percentage points WoW to 69.17%; and in Guangxi, it remained flat at 93.94%. During the period, the decline in spot transaction prices of alumina in north China narrowed, but overall transaction prices have approached the theoretical marginal cost of alumina refineries in the region. In south China, the decline in spot alumina prices accelerated, widening the price difference between north and south China. Alumina from the north was transported to the south, further driving down spot alumina prices in the south. During the period, a total of 12,000 mt of spot alumina was transacted in Henan at 3,880-3,950 yuan/mt; 2,000 mt in Shandong at 3,940 yuan/mt; 3,000 mt in Guizhou at 4,300 yuan/mt; and 3,000 mt in Guangxi at 4,150 yuan/mt. Additionally, downstream buyers in Guangxi purchased 10,000 mt of alumina from Shanxi, with a delivery-to-factory price of 4,300 yuan/mt in Guangxi.

Overall:

This week, the weekly operating rate of alumina continued to fluctuate at highs, with no significant reduction in alumina supply observed. As the Chinese New Year break approaches, spot alumina transactions were relatively sluggish. Overall, the decline in spot alumina transaction prices in north China narrowed significantly, currently approaching the theoretical marginal cost of alumina production in the region. In south China, spot alumina prices declined at an accelerated pace, with the price difference between north and south China narrowing during the week. In the short term, no large-scale expectations for production cuts in alumina have been identified, and the spot alumina market is expected to remain relatively loose, with prices likely to continue their downward trend in the short term. The profit margin for alumina is narrowing, and cost support is gradually becoming evident. Continuous attention is needed on bauxite transaction prices and changes in alumina capacity.

Source: SMM

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