Futures Market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,259.5/mt, hitting a high of $9,264.5/mt at the beginning of the session. It fluctuated widely during the session and dipped to $9,210/mt near the close, before slightly rebounding to settle at $9,235/mt, down 0.6%. Trading volume reached 13,000 lots, and open interest stood at 295,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2503 contract opened at 75,580 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 75,650 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session. It then fluctuated downward, reaching a low of 75,390 yuan/mt near the close, before slightly rebounding to settle at 75,490 yuan/mt, down 0.08%. Trading volume reached 14,000 lots, and open interest stood at 161,000 lots.
【SMM Copper Morning Brief】News: (1) US President Trump called on Russian President Putin to stop the Russia-Ukraine conflict, stating that if no agreement is reached, tariffs and sanctions will be imposed on Russia.
(2) The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Comprehensive Rural Revitalization Plan (2024-2027)": A new round of urbanization actions for agricultural migrants will be implemented, ensuring the legitimate land rights of farmers who settle in cities.
Spot Market: (1) Shanghai: On January 22, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2502 contract were quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt to parity, with an average price at a discount of 35 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums declined as expected, with both supply and demand in the market remaining inactive. Some traders had already started their holidays early, and downstream procurement gradually paused as logistics operations were suspended. The market is expected to be even quieter today.
(2) Guangdong: On January 22, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a discount of 300 yuan/mt to parity, with an average price at a discount of 150 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, suppliers actively lowered prices to secure cash flow, but actual transactions remained limited.
(3) Imported Copper: On January 22, warehouse warrant prices were $66-80/mt, QP February, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. B/L prices were $56-70/mt, QP February, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was quoted at $6-20/mt, QP February, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. Quotes referenced cargoes arriving in late January and early February. Yesterday, the SHFE/LME price ratio against the SHFE copper 2502 contract was around -540 yuan/mt. LME copper 3M-Feb was at C$72.20/mt, and the 2502-month date to 2503-month date was around C$36/mt. The market remained inactive yesterday, with few quotes or inquiries. Limited transactions were seen for forward-month B/Ls, as buyers placed lower bids due to the price ratio.
(4) Secondary Copper: On January 22, secondary copper raw material prices remained unchanged WoW. Guangdong bare bright copper prices were 68,400-68,600 yuan/mt, unchanged WoW. The price difference between primary metal and scrap was 2,543 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt WoW. The price difference for rods was 1,075 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, secondary copper import traders in Ningbo Zhenhai reported slightly lower pre-holiday inventories compared to previous years. Additionally, downstream operations had mostly ceased, and traders in the Zhenhai industrial park would gradually halt operations as logistics services paused.
(5) Inventory: On January 22, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 125 mt to 260,400 mt. On January 22, SHFE warehouse warrant inventories increased by 502 mt to 17,419 mt.
Prices: Macro side, Trump also vowed to impose tariffs on European imports without providing further details and threatened new tariffs on Russia if no agreement is reached to end the Ukraine war. The market is concerned that Trump's policies could trigger trade tensions and increase market volatility. Oil prices fell to a one-week low on Wednesday, and copper prices followed suit. Fundamentals side, with the Chinese New Year approaching, some traders had already started their holidays early, and downstream procurement gradually paused as logistics operations were suspended, leading to weak supply and demand. Price side, due to policy uncertainties, the market remained cautious, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound today.
》Click to View the SMM Metal Database
【The above information is based on market data collected and comprehensively evaluated by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not substitute this information for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.】
