SMM Morning Comment: Alumina Operating Rate Rises, Spot Prices Decline Further

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Jan 21, 2025 09:16
SMM Morning Comment on Alumina: Recently, the weekly operating rate of alumina has continued to increase slightly, with no significant changes on the demand side. Low-priced spot transactions have been frequent in the market, and the decline has widened compared to earlier periods. In Henan, the spot transaction price was 4,050 yuan/mt this Thursday, down 830 yuan/mt from last Thursday's price of 4,880 yuan/mt. However, as of now, alumina capacity has not yet entered a large-scale loss-making state. It is expected that the short-term operating rate of alumina supply will remain high, with the supply and demand fundamentals maintaining a slight surplus. Overall, spot alumina prices are expected to continue their downward trend in the short term. Close attention should be paid to bauxite transaction prices, alumina costs, and overseas spot alumina prices in the near future.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ•์„ธยท์›๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šนยท์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐœ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ํ†ค๋‹น 200์œ„์•ˆ ์ƒ์Šน
14๋ถ„ ์ „
ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ•์„ธยท์›๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šนยท์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐœ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ํ†ค๋‹น 200์œ„์•ˆ ์ƒ์Šน
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ•์„ธยท์›๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šนยท์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐœ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ํ†ค๋‹น 200์œ„์•ˆ ์ƒ์Šน
ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ•์„ธยท์›๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šนยท์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐœ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ํ†ค๋‹น 200์œ„์•ˆ ์ƒ์Šน
[SMM ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ] ์˜ค๋Š˜ ADC12 ์‹œ์žฅ ํ˜ธ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ์Šนํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, SMM ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ์ „์ผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 200์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค ์˜ฌ๋ž๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ƒํ–ฅ ์กฐ์ •์€ ์ฃผ๋กœ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ, ์›์ž์žฌ ๋น„์šฉ ์ƒ์Šน, ์‹œ์žฅ ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐœ์„ ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๋น„์šฉ ์ธก๋ฉด์ด ํ˜„์žฌ ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์— ๋” ๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์ง€์ง€๋ ฅ์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์€ ๋น„์šฉ ์••๋ฐ•๊ณผ ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฐ•์„ธ ์†์—์„œ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์„ ์ƒํ–ฅ ์กฐ์ •ํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ์˜์ง€๊ฐ€ ๋”์šฑ ๋šœ๋ ทํ•ด์กŒ๋‹ค. ๋™์‹œ์— ์ผ๋ถ€ ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์€ ํ–ฅํ›„ ์ตœ์ข… ์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ์„ ์ผ์ • ๋ถ€๋ถ„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ตœ์ข… ์‚ฌ์šฉ์ž ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ํšŒ๋ณต ์—ฌ๋ถ€์™€ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ ์›์ž์žฌ ๋น„์šฉ์˜ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ๋ณ€๋™์— ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ฃผ๋ชฉํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
14๋ถ„ ์ „
์„ ๋ฌผ ์‹œ์žฅ ๋ŒํŒŒ, ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์ƒ์Šน, ADC12 ์‹œ์„ธ ์ธ์ƒ, ์ƒ์Šน ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ˆ˜์š” ํ™•์ธ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ [ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
21๋ถ„ ์ „
์„ ๋ฌผ ์‹œ์žฅ ๋ŒํŒŒ, ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์ƒ์Šน, ADC12 ์‹œ์„ธ ์ธ์ƒ, ์ƒ์Šน ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ˆ˜์š” ํ™•์ธ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ [ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์„ ๋ฌผ ์‹œ์žฅ ๋ŒํŒŒ, ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์ƒ์Šน, ADC12 ์‹œ์„ธ ์ธ์ƒ, ์ƒ์Šน ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ˆ˜์š” ํ™•์ธ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ [ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
์„ ๋ฌผ ์‹œ์žฅ ๋ŒํŒŒ, ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์ƒ์Šน, ADC12 ์‹œ์„ธ ์ธ์ƒ, ์ƒ์Šน ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ˆ˜์š” ํ™•์ธ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ [ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
[ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ: ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ์ด ์ค‘์‹ฌ์„ ๋Œ์–ด์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ณ , ADC12 ํ˜ธ๊ฐ€ ์ƒํ–ฅ ์กฐ์ •, ์ƒ์Šน ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ˆ˜์š” ํ™•์ธ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ ์ค‘] ์˜ค๋Š˜ ADC12 ์‹œ์žฅ ํ˜ธ๊ฐ€๋Š” ์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋น„๊ต์  ๋šœ๋ ทํ•œ ์ƒ์Šน ์ถ”์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€๋‹ค. SMM ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ์ „์ผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 200์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค ์ƒ์Šนํ•œ 24,300์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค์„ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์กฐ์ • ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€์€ ์ฃผ๋กœ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ฐ•์„ธ, ์›์ž์žฌ ๋น„์šฉ ์ƒ์Šน, ์‹œ์žฅ ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐœ์„ ์— ์˜ํ•ด ์ฃผ๋„๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค.
21๋ถ„ ์ „
์ค‘๊ตญ ์ฃผ์กฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ์ž‰๊ณณ ์žฌ๊ณ  4์ฃผ ์—ฐ์† ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 1,200ํ†ค ๋Š˜์—ˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 53.8% ๊ฐ์†Œ
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์ค‘๊ตญ ์ฃผ์กฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ์ž‰๊ณณ ์žฌ๊ณ  4์ฃผ ์—ฐ์† ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 1,200ํ†ค ๋Š˜์—ˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 53.8% ๊ฐ์†Œ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์ค‘๊ตญ ์ฃผ์กฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ์ž‰๊ณณ ์žฌ๊ณ  4์ฃผ ์—ฐ์† ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 1,200ํ†ค ๋Š˜์—ˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 53.8% ๊ฐ์†Œ
์ค‘๊ตญ ์ฃผ์กฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ์ž‰๊ณณ ์žฌ๊ณ  4์ฃผ ์—ฐ์† ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 1,200ํ†ค ๋Š˜์—ˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 53.8% ๊ฐ์†Œ
[SMM ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ] ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ฃผ์กฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ์ž‰๊ณณ ์‚ฌํšŒ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋Š” 33,000ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 1,200ํ†ค ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋ฉฐ 4์ฃผ ์—ฐ์† ์žฌ๊ณ  ์ฆ๊ฐ€์„ธ๋ฅผ ์ด์–ด๊ฐ”๋‹ค. ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„๋กœ๋Š” 38,400ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ค€์œผ๋กœ, 53.8% ์ค„์–ด๋“ค์—ˆ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ์ดˆ์ž… ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค๋Š” ์ฃผ๋กœ ๊ฐ•์„ฑ ์ˆ˜์š”์— ๊ทธ์น˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ˆ˜์š” ์ธก๋ฉด์€ ์•„์ง ์™„์ „ํžˆ ํšŒ๋ณต๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค. ์ผ๋ถ€ ํ˜„๋ฌผ ํŠธ๋ ˆ์ด๋”๋“ค์˜ ๋งค์ž…์ด ์ž…๊ณ  ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ผ์ • ๋ถ€๋ถ„ ๋ณด์™„ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌํšŒ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋Š” ์†Œํญ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ ์ถ”์„ธ๋ฅผ ์ด์–ด๊ฐˆ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋œ๋‹ค.
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
SMM Morning Comment on Alumina: Recently, the weekly operating rate of - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)