SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting: Pre-CNY Slowdown in Silicon Wafer, Battery Shipments, Slight Inventory Increase

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Jan 21, 2025 08:46
[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Silicon Wafer and Battery Shipments Weakened Ahead of Chinese New Year, Inventories Slightly Increased] Silicon wafer inventories rose slightly MoM this week. As Chinese New Year approaches, downstream purchases have essentially stopped, leading to inventory accumulation. Some integrated manufacturers' battery facilities have gradually started holiday breaks, while most specialized battery manufacturers maintained their operating rates. Affected by the Chinese New Year, shipments slowed, and inventories showed an upward trend.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
[๋ถ„์‚ฐํ˜• ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ชจ๋“ˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ ์ง€์†]
3์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[๋ถ„์‚ฐํ˜• ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ชจ๋“ˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ ์ง€์†]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[๋ถ„์‚ฐํ˜• ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ชจ๋“ˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ ์ง€์†]
[๋ถ„์‚ฐํ˜• ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ชจ๋“ˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ ์ง€์†]
๋ถ„์‚ฐํ˜• ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋„ ์—‡๊ฐˆ๋ฆฐ ํ๋ฆ„์„ ๋ณด์˜€๋‹ค. ์ผ๋ถ€ ์ „๋ฌธ ๋ชจ๋“ˆ ๊ธฐ์—…์€ ์ €๊ฐ€ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋ฅผ ์ด์–ด๊ฐ”๊ณ , ์„ ๋‘ ์ผ์ฒดํ˜• ์—…์ฒด๋“ค์€ ์›๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€๋‹ด์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์„ ๋Œ€์ฒด๋กœ ์œ ์ง€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์ƒยทํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ธฐ์—… ๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ˜‘์ƒ์ด ์ง€์†๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋˜๋ฉฐ, ์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ์†Œํญ ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์˜ค๋Š˜ ๋ถ„์‚ฐํ˜• 210R ๋ชจ๋“ˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ 0.714~0.726์œ„์•ˆ/W๋กœ ์ž ์ • ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ๋ฅผ ์œ ์ง€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
3์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[์ตœ์ƒ์œ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด๋“ค์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ PV ์œ ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์„ ํ˜‘์ƒ ์ค‘์ด๋‹ค]
3์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[์ตœ์ƒ์œ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด๋“ค์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ PV ์œ ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์„ ํ˜‘์ƒ ์ค‘์ด๋‹ค]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[์ตœ์ƒ์œ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด๋“ค์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ PV ์œ ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์„ ํ˜‘์ƒ ์ค‘์ด๋‹ค]
[์ตœ์ƒ์œ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด๋“ค์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ PV ์œ ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์„ ํ˜‘์ƒ ์ค‘์ด๋‹ค]
์ค‘๊ตญ ์œ ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ์˜ค๋Š˜ ์ผ์‹œ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ๋ฅผ ์œ ์ง€ํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์€ ์›”์ดˆ์— ์ •ํ•œ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๋ชจ๋“ˆ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด๋“ค๊ณผ ํ˜‘์ƒ ์ค‘์ด๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋œ ์œ ๋ฆฌ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์€ 10~10.3์œ„์•ˆ/ใŽก์ด๋ฉฐ, ์„ ๋‘ ๋ชจ๋“ˆ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด๋“ค์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ˜‘์ƒ์„ ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ค‘์œผ๋กœ ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ์  ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ 10์œ„์•ˆ/ใŽก ๋ฏธ๋งŒ์ด๋‹ค.
3์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋ฐฉ๊ธ€๋ผ๋ฐ์‹œ, 5GW ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ์ˆœ๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰ ์˜ฅ์ƒ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘์— kWh๋‹น 0.086๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์š”๊ธˆ์ œ ๋„์ž…]
6์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋ฐฉ๊ธ€๋ผ๋ฐ์‹œ, 5GW ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ์ˆœ๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰ ์˜ฅ์ƒ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘์— kWh๋‹น 0.086๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์š”๊ธˆ์ œ ๋„์ž…]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋ฐฉ๊ธ€๋ผ๋ฐ์‹œ, 5GW ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ์ˆœ๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰ ์˜ฅ์ƒ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘์— kWh๋‹น 0.086๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์š”๊ธˆ์ œ ๋„์ž…]
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋ฐฉ๊ธ€๋ผ๋ฐ์‹œ, 5GW ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ์ˆœ๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰ ์˜ฅ์ƒ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘์— kWh๋‹น 0.086๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์š”๊ธˆ์ œ ๋„์ž…]
๋ฐฉ๊ธ€๋ผ๋ฐ์‹œ ์ „๋ ฅ๋ถ€๋Š” ์ž๊ตญ ์ˆœ๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰ ์ œ๋„์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ ๊ฒฉ ์˜ฅ์ƒ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ž‰์—ฌ ์ „๋ ฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด kWh๋‹น 10.50ํƒ€์นด(0.086๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ)์˜ ์š”๊ธˆ์„ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, 2030๋…„ 2์›” 28์ผ๊นŒ์ง€ 3๋…„๊ฐ„ ์œ ํšจํ•˜๋‹ค. ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ์ €์žฅ์žฅ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–์ถ˜ ์˜ฅ์ƒ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๋ฐœ์ „ ๋น„์šฉ์€ kWh๋‹น 8ํƒ€์นด๋กœ ์„ค์ •๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” 20%์˜ ์ด์œค๊ณผ 11.25%์˜ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์„ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. 2027๋…„ 2์›” 28์ผ๊นŒ์ง€ ์„ค์น˜๋˜์–ด 2025๋…„ ์ˆœ๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰ ์ง€์นจ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ ๊ฒฉํ•œ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์€ ์ธ์„ผํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ ์š”๊ธˆ์„ ๋ฐ›์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ  ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ์ˆ˜์š” ์‹œ 3GW๋ฅผ ์ดˆ๊ณผํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ์ผ ์ „๋ ฅ ๋ถ€์กฑ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋‚ด๋…„ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„๊นŒ์ง€ ์ˆœ๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ตœ์†Œ 5GW์˜ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์„ค์น˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค.
6์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Silicon Wafer and Batte - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)