"The 'Wolf' Has Truly Arrived: The Spot Market Gradually Enters 'Holiday Mode,' What Drama Will Unfold in the Copper Market? [SMM Commentary]"

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Jan 17, 2025 18:30
[SMM Commentary: "The Wolf" Has Truly Arrived, Spot Market Gradually Enters "Holiday Mode"โ€”What Drama Will Unfold in the Copper Market?] This week, the cooling of US PPI data and US core CPI data falling below expectations have heightened market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the US Fed this year. Additionally, comments from Fed Governor Waller, stating that if US economic data weakens further, there could still be three to four rate cuts this year, have weighed on the US dollar index, boosting risk appetite for assets like copper. Furthermore, China's GDP growth of 5% YoY in 2024 and 5.4% in Q4 have also provided support for the prices of copper and other metals.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
์•„์šฐ๋ฃจ๋น„์Šค, ํ•จ๋ถ€๋ฅดํฌ์— 1์–ต 9์ฒœ๋งŒ ์œ ๋กœ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ฒจ๋‹จ ๊ธˆ์† ์žฌํ™œ์šฉ CRH ์‹œ์„ค ๊ฐ€๋™
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์•„์šฐ๋ฃจ๋น„์Šค, ํ•จ๋ถ€๋ฅดํฌ์— 1์–ต 9์ฒœ๋งŒ ์œ ๋กœ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ฒจ๋‹จ ๊ธˆ์† ์žฌํ™œ์šฉ CRH ์‹œ์„ค ๊ฐ€๋™
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์•„์šฐ๋ฃจ๋น„์Šค, ํ•จ๋ถ€๋ฅดํฌ์— 1์–ต 9์ฒœ๋งŒ ์œ ๋กœ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ฒจ๋‹จ ๊ธˆ์† ์žฌํ™œ์šฉ CRH ์‹œ์„ค ๊ฐ€๋™
์•„์šฐ๋ฃจ๋น„์Šค, ํ•จ๋ถ€๋ฅดํฌ์— 1์–ต 9์ฒœ๋งŒ ์œ ๋กœ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ฒจ๋‹จ ๊ธˆ์† ์žฌํ™œ์šฉ CRH ์‹œ์„ค ๊ฐ€๋™
์•„์šฐ๋ฃจ๋น„์Šค๋Š” ํ•จ๋ถ€๋ฅดํฌ ์‚ฌ์—…์žฅ์— 'ํ•จ๋ถ€๋ฅดํฌ ๋ณตํ•ฉ ์žฌํ™œ์šฉ(CRH) I' ์‹œ์„ค์„ ๊ฐ€๋™ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ์ดˆ์˜ ์ด ์‹œ์„ค์€ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์˜ ์ „๋žต์  ๊ธˆ์† ์žฌํ™œ์šฉ ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด 1์–ต 9์ฒœ๋งŒ ์œ ๋กœ๊ฐ€ ํˆฌ์ž๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์œ ๋‹›์—์„œ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ, ๋‚ฉ, ํ™ฉ์„ ๋™์‹œ์— ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
28๋ถ„ ์ „
KGHM, ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ „๋žต์— 85์–ต 5,000๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํˆฌ์ž…โ€ฆ 2030๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๋Œ€ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
29๋ถ„ ์ „
KGHM, ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ „๋žต์— 85์–ต 5,000๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํˆฌ์ž…โ€ฆ 2030๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๋Œ€ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
KGHM, ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ „๋žต์— 85์–ต 5,000๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํˆฌ์ž…โ€ฆ 2030๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๋Œ€ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
KGHM, ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ „๋žต์— 85์–ต 5,000๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํˆฌ์ž…โ€ฆ 2030๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๋Œ€ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
ํด๋ž€๋“œ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌยท์€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด KGHM์ด ๊ธˆ์š”์ผ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ „๋žต์„ ์ฑ„ํƒ, 2030๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ 320์–ต ์ฆˆ์›Œํ‹ฐ(์•ฝ 85์–ต 5์ฒœ๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ) ์ด์ƒ์„ ํˆฌ์žํ•˜๊ณ  ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ฐ ์ˆ˜์ต ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋ฅผ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ๋กœ ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. โ€˜์ „๋žต 2055+โ€™๋กœ ๋ช…๋ช…๋œ ์ด ๊ณ„ํš์€ 2026๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2030๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ์ง€๊ธ‰ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ 73๋งŒ ํ†ค๊ณผ ์€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ 1,290ํ†ค์„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ ˆ๋ฏธ๊ธฐ์šฐ์‹œ ํŒŒ์Šˆํ‚ค์—๋น„์น˜ CEO๋Š” โ€œ2035๋…„ ์ดํ›„ KGHM์ด ํ˜„๋Œ€์ ์ด๊ณ  ๋‹ค์›๋ฃŒ ์‚ฐ์—… ๊ทธ๋ฃน์œผ๋กœ ๊ฑฐ๋“ญ๋‚˜๊ธธ ํฌ๋งํ•œ๋‹คโ€๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Š” ๋˜ ํด๋ž€๋“œ์— โ€˜KGHM 2.0โ€™์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์‹ ๊ทœ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์„ ๊ฑด์„คํ•  ๊ณ„ํš์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ง๋ถ™์˜€๋‹ค.
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์•ˆํ† ํŒŒ๊ฐ€์Šคํƒ€, ์น ๋ ˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํƒ์‚ฌ ํ™•์žฅ ์œ„ํ•ด 4๋ถ„๊ธฐ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ํ–ฅํ‰๊ฐ€ ์‹ ์ฒญ ๊ณ„ํš
30๋ถ„ ์ „
์•ˆํ† ํŒŒ๊ฐ€์Šคํƒ€, ์น ๋ ˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํƒ์‚ฌ ํ™•์žฅ ์œ„ํ•ด 4๋ถ„๊ธฐ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ํ–ฅํ‰๊ฐ€ ์‹ ์ฒญ ๊ณ„ํš
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์•ˆํ† ํŒŒ๊ฐ€์Šคํƒ€, ์น ๋ ˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํƒ์‚ฌ ํ™•์žฅ ์œ„ํ•ด 4๋ถ„๊ธฐ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ํ–ฅํ‰๊ฐ€ ์‹ ์ฒญ ๊ณ„ํš
์•ˆํ† ํŒŒ๊ฐ€์Šคํƒ€, ์น ๋ ˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํƒ์‚ฌ ํ™•์žฅ ์œ„ํ•ด 4๋ถ„๊ธฐ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ํ–ฅํ‰๊ฐ€ ์‹ ์ฒญ ๊ณ„ํš
๋‚ด๋ถ€ ํšŒ์‚ฌ ๋ฌธ์„œ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์น ๋ ˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด ์•ˆํ† ํŒŒ๊ฐ€์Šคํƒ€(Antofagasta)๊ฐ€ ์˜ฌํ•ด 4๋ถ„๊ธฐ์— ์—”์‹œ์—๋กœ(Encierro) ๋ฐ ๋ณผ์นด๋„ค์Šค(Volcanes) ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์˜ ํƒ์‚ฌ ํ™œ๋™์„ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ ์‹ ์ฒญ์„œ๋ฅผ ์ œ์ถœํ•  ๊ณ„ํš์ด๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์กฐ์น˜๋Š” ์•ˆํ† ํŒŒ๊ฐ€์Šคํƒ€์˜ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์„ฑ์žฅ ์˜ต์…˜ ๋‘ ๊ฑด์— ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ง„์ „์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ฃผ์š” ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด๋“ค์€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ํŒŒ์ดํ”„๋ผ์ธ์„ ๋ณด๊ฐ•ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ฒฝ์Ÿํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๊ตญ์ธ ์น ๋ ˆ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ธํ—ˆ๊ฐ€ ์ ˆ์ฐจ, ์šฉ์ˆ˜ ์ œํ•œ, ๋…ธํ›„ ๊ด‘์ƒ ๋“ฑ์˜ ๊ณผ์ œ์— ์ง๋ฉดํ•ด ์žˆ๋‹ค.
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[SMM Commentary: "The Wolf" Has Truly Arrived, Spot Market Gradually E - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)