SMM Commentary: 2024 Steel Exports Conclude Strongly, 2025 Outlook Sees Slight YoY Decline

[SMM Steel Import and Export Data Commentary: Perfect Conclusion for 2024 Steel Exports, How Much Will 2025 Steel Exports Decline?]

In 2024, due to the continuous increase in China's steel export volume, some countries believe that Chinese steel products are being sold in the international market at prices below normal value. This year, China has faced a significant rise in trade remedy investigations, with the cumulative cases exceeding the total from 2021 to 2023. The specific impacts may materialize in 2025. On the other hand, the tariff increase measures imposed by Trump upon taking office will also affect China's indirect steel exports. Considering that the effects of these two factors still require some time to unfold, SMM predicts that China's steel exports in 2025 may show a trend of high levels in the first half and lower levels in the second half. However, the price advantage will remain, and the annual steel export volume is expected to see a slight YoY decline, fluctuating between 96-98 million mt.