Stalemate and Game Between Upstream and Downstream; Worsening Inversion of Rare Earth Metals [SMM Weekly Review]

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Jan 9, 2025 14:38
[SMM Weekly Review: Stalemate Between Upstream and Downstream Intensifies, Rare Earth Metal Losses Worsen] Metal factories have raised their quotations following the increase in oxide prices, but downstream magnetic material enterprises, facing lower order prices, show low acceptance of high-priced metals. This has made high-price transactions in the market difficult, further exacerbating the raw material cost losses for metal factories.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
์ผ๋ฃจ์นด, ์—๋„ค์•„๋ฐ”์— ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ์ตœ์ดˆ ํฌํ† ๋ฅ˜ ์ •์ œ์†Œ ๊ฑด์„ค ์œ„ํ•ด 11์–ต 5์ฒœ๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋Œ€์ถœ ํ™•๋ณด
17๋ถ„ ์ „
์ผ๋ฃจ์นด, ์—๋„ค์•„๋ฐ”์— ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ์ตœ์ดˆ ํฌํ† ๋ฅ˜ ์ •์ œ์†Œ ๊ฑด์„ค ์œ„ํ•ด 11์–ต 5์ฒœ๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋Œ€์ถœ ํ™•๋ณด
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์ผ๋ฃจ์นด, ์—๋„ค์•„๋ฐ”์— ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ์ตœ์ดˆ ํฌํ† ๋ฅ˜ ์ •์ œ์†Œ ๊ฑด์„ค ์œ„ํ•ด 11์–ต 5์ฒœ๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋Œ€์ถœ ํ™•๋ณด
์ผ๋ฃจ์นด, ์—๋„ค์•„๋ฐ”์— ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ์ตœ์ดˆ ํฌํ† ๋ฅ˜ ์ •์ œ์†Œ ๊ฑด์„ค ์œ„ํ•ด 11์–ต 5์ฒœ๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋Œ€์ถœ ํ™•๋ณด
[SMM ํฌํ† ๋ฅ˜ ์†๋ณด] ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ๊ด‘๋ฌผ์‚ฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด ์ผ๋ฃจ์นด ๋ฆฌ์†Œ์‹œ์Šค(Iluka Resources)๋Š” ์ตœ๊ทผ ์›จ์Šคํ„ด์˜ค์ŠคํŠธ๋ ˆ์ผ๋ฆฌ์•„์ฃผ ์—๋„ค์•„๋ฐ”์— ํฌํ† ๋ฅ˜ ์ •์ œ ์‹œ์„ค ๊ฑด์„ค์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์ˆ˜์ถœ๊ธˆ์œต๊ณต์‚ฌ(EFA)๊ฐ€ ํ™•์ธํ•œ 16์–ต5์ฒœ๋งŒ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(์•ฝ 11์–ต5์ฒœ๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ)์˜ ๋น„์†Œ๊ตฌ ๋Œ€์ถœ์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ์ •์ œ ์‹œ์„ค์€ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ์ตœ์ดˆ์˜ ์™„์ „ ํ†ตํ•ฉํ˜• ํฌํ† ๋ฅ˜ ์ •์ œ ์‹œ์„ค์ด ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ผ๋ฃจ์นด๋Š” ์ฒซ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์ธ์ถœ๊ธˆ 12์–ต5์ฒœ๋งŒ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ 2026๋…„ ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์ „์•ก ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋•Œ ์ •์ œ ์‹œ์„ค ๊ฑด์„ค์ด 75% ์™„๋ฃŒ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” ํ˜„์žฌ 50% ์ด์ƒ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, 2027๋…„ ์ค‘๋ฐ˜๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‹œ์šด์ „์ด ์‹œ์ž‘๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•œํŽธ, ์ผ๋ฃจ์นด๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ์œ ๋ช…ํ•œ ์ž๋™์ฐจ ์ œ์กฐ์—…์ฒด์™€ ๊ตฌ์†๋ ฅ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋‹ค๋…„๊ฐ„ ๊ตฌ๋งค ๊ณ„์•ฝ์„ ์ฒด๊ฒฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 2028๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํšจ๋ ฅ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” 4๋…„ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์œผ๋กœ, ๋„ค์˜ค๋””๋ฎด, ํ”„๋ผ์„ธ์˜ค๋””๋ฎด, ๋””์Šคํ”„๋กœ์Š˜, ํ„ฐ๋ธ€ ๋“ฑ ์ž์„ฑ ํฌํ† ๋ฅ˜ ์‚ฐํ™”๋ฌผ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์„ ํฌํ•จํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” ์ผ๋ฃจ์นด์˜ ๊ณ„ํš ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์ค‘ ์•ฝ 10%(์•ฝ 1,200ํ†ค)์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17๋ถ„ ์ „
์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํ“จ์–ผ์Šค, 19์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์— ๋…์ผ ์ž์„ ์ œ์กฐ์‚ฌ VAC ์ธ์ˆ˜๋กœ ์™„์ „ํ•œ ํฌํ† ๋ฅ˜ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ๊ตฌ์ถ•
15์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํ“จ์–ผ์Šค, 19์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์— ๋…์ผ ์ž์„ ์ œ์กฐ์‚ฌ VAC ์ธ์ˆ˜๋กœ ์™„์ „ํ•œ ํฌํ† ๋ฅ˜ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ๊ตฌ์ถ•
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํ“จ์–ผ์Šค, 19์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์— ๋…์ผ ์ž์„ ์ œ์กฐ์‚ฌ VAC ์ธ์ˆ˜๋กœ ์™„์ „ํ•œ ํฌํ† ๋ฅ˜ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ๊ตฌ์ถ•
์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํ“จ์–ผ์Šค, 19์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์— ๋…์ผ ์ž์„ ์ œ์กฐ์‚ฌ VAC ์ธ์ˆ˜๋กœ ์™„์ „ํ•œ ํฌํ† ๋ฅ˜ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ๊ตฌ์ถ•
[SMM ํฌํ† ๋ฅ˜ ์†๋ณด] ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ํ•ต์‹ฌ ๊ด‘๋ฌผ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํ“จ์–ผ์Šค(Energy Fuels, NYSE American: UUUU)๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ๋ชจํŽ€๋“œ ์•„๋ผ ํŒŒํŠธ๋„ˆ์Šค(Ara Partners)์™€ ๋…์ผ์˜ 100๋…„ ์—ญ์‚ฌ ์ž์„ฑ์žฌ๋ฃŒ ๊ธฐ์—… ๋ฐ”์ฟฐ์Šˆ๋ฉœ์ฒด(Vacuumschmelze, VAC) ์ธ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ํ™•์ • ๊ณ„์•ฝ์„ ์ฒด๊ฒฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ธ์ˆ˜ ๊ธˆ์•ก์€ ์•ฝ 19์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(์•ฝ 2์กฐ ์›)์ด๋ฉฐ, ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Š” 2027๋…„ ์ดˆ ๋งˆ๋ฌด๋ฆฌ๋  ์ „๋ง์ด๋‹ค. VAC๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์‚ฌ์šฐ์Šค์บ๋กค๋ผ์ด๋‚˜์ฃผ์— ๋ณด์œ ํ•œ ์„ฌํ„ฐ(Sumter) ๊ณต์žฅ์€ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 2,000๋ฉ”ํŠธ๋ฆญํ†ค์˜ ์˜๊ตฌ์ž์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ–์ถ”๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ตœ๋Œ€ 12,000๋ฉ”ํŠธ๋ฆญํ†ค๊นŒ์ง€ ํ™•์žฅํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ธ์ˆ˜๋กœ VAC์˜ ๋‹ค์šด์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ์ž์„ฑ์žฌ๋ฃŒ ์ œ์กฐ ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํ“จ์–ผ์Šค์˜ ์—…์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ํฌํ† ๋ฅ˜ ์ฑ„๊ตดยท๋ถ„๋ฆฌ ์ž์‚ฐ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ธ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๊ณ„ํš๋œ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ์ „๋žต ๊ด‘๋ฌผ(ASM)๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํ™•๋ณดํ•  ๊ธˆ์† ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ด ๊ฒฐํ•ฉ๋œ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์„œ๋ฐฉ ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„œ ์ฑ„๊ตด๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์™„์„ฑ ์ž์„๊นŒ์ง€ ์ „์ฒด ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง์„ ์•„์šฐ๋ฅด๋Š” ์ตœ์ดˆ์˜ ํฌํ† ๋ฅ˜ ํ”Œ๋žซํผ์ด ํƒ„์ƒํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค. VAC๋Š” ๋…์ผ ๋ณธ์‚ฌ์™€ ๋ธŒ๋žœ๋“œ๋ฅผ ๊ทธ๋Œ€๋กœ ์œ ์ง€ํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋‹ค.
15์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์‚ฐ์—…-๊ฒ€์‚ฌ ์‹œ๋„ˆ์ง€๋กœ ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ฐ•ํ™”, ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์‚ฐ์—… ์ง€ํ‰์„ ๊ฐœ์ฒ™! SMM, ์ค‘๊ตญ์ธ์ฆ๊ฒ€์‚ฌ๊ทธ๋ฃน ๊ด‘์‹œ์œ ํ•œ๊ณต์‚ฌ ๋ฐฉ๋ฌธ
19์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์‚ฐ์—…-๊ฒ€์‚ฌ ์‹œ๋„ˆ์ง€๋กœ ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ฐ•ํ™”, ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์‚ฐ์—… ์ง€ํ‰์„ ๊ฐœ์ฒ™! SMM, ์ค‘๊ตญ์ธ์ฆ๊ฒ€์‚ฌ๊ทธ๋ฃน ๊ด‘์‹œ์œ ํ•œ๊ณต์‚ฌ ๋ฐฉ๋ฌธ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์‚ฐ์—…-๊ฒ€์‚ฌ ์‹œ๋„ˆ์ง€๋กœ ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ฐ•ํ™”, ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์‚ฐ์—… ์ง€ํ‰์„ ๊ฐœ์ฒ™! SMM, ์ค‘๊ตญ์ธ์ฆ๊ฒ€์‚ฌ๊ทธ๋ฃน ๊ด‘์‹œ์œ ํ•œ๊ณต์‚ฌ ๋ฐฉ๋ฌธ
์‚ฐ์—…-๊ฒ€์‚ฌ ์‹œ๋„ˆ์ง€๋กœ ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ฐ•ํ™”, ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์‚ฐ์—… ์ง€ํ‰์„ ๊ฐœ์ฒ™! SMM, ์ค‘๊ตญ์ธ์ฆ๊ฒ€์‚ฌ๊ทธ๋ฃน ๊ด‘์‹œ์œ ํ•œ๊ณต์‚ฌ ๋ฐฉ๋ฌธ
19์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „