Rare Earth Market Fluctuates in December: How Will Prices Develop in the Future? [SMM Analysis]

SMM January 3 News: Reviewing the development of the rare earth market in December, the listing prices of China Northern Rare Earth remained unchanged at the beginning of the month, which was within market expectations and thus did not significantly impact the overall market. Pr-Nd product prices showed a continuous downward trend due to weak downstream demand. In the medium-heavy rare earth sector, market rumors about Myanmar ore potentially re-entering circulation at month-end, coupled with acquisition activities by major producers, jointly led to a sustained decline in medium-heavy rare earth prices. Meanwhile, the anticipated year-end stockpiling surge by magnetic material enterprises did not materialize. Entering December, downstream demand support remained weak, trading sentiment stayed subdued, and no significant signs of recovery were observed.

By mid-December, as low-price transactions in the oxide market were frequently recorded, suppliers' willingness to sell at reduced prices began to weaken. In the metal market, the pace of price decline gradually slowed due to increased purchase willingness from downstream magnetic material enterprises. Simultaneously, with the heightened inquiry activity from downstream buyers, Pr-Nd product prices started to bottom out, and low-priced supplies became increasingly scarce.

At the same time, medium-heavy rare earth prices stabilized and remained firm, influenced by news of Myanmar ore being unable to circulate. In the downstream market, order volumes for magnetic material enterprises increased slightly. However, due to significant polarization in the magnetic material market, the order growth was mainly concentrated among large top-tier enterprises. Given the limited scope of order growth, overall production sentiment in the market remained pessimistic, and expectations for the future were not optimistic.

As the New Year holiday approached, upstream suppliers continued to maintain firm quotations. However, downstream metal manufacturers, resistant to high-priced purchases, only conducted tentative inquiries, intensifying the market's bargaining dynamics. Meanwhile, due to persistently weak downstream demand, Pr-Nd product prices overall exhibited a stable-to-weak trend. In contrast, the medium-heavy rare earth market, influenced by news of disrupted Myanmar ore circulation, showed a stronger price trend with some upward momentum. The complex dynamics between upstream and downstream markets have introduced significant uncertainty to the entire rare earth industry, with all parties cautiously observing market developments.

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With the arrival of January, the rare earth market has shown a relatively subdued state. Upstream suppliers remain unwilling to sell at low prices, while downstream markets show low acceptance of high-priced products, resulting in continued intense price bargaining between upstream and downstream players. Due to low trading activity, overall transactions appear relatively mediocre.

Meanwhile, most magnetic material enterprises are expected to begin halting production and taking holidays around January 20, further reducing short-term market momentum to break the current stalemate. Under these circumstances, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to remain stable. On the other hand, medium-heavy rare earth prices may maintain a strong trend due to the ongoing disruption in Myanmar ore circulation.