Domestic Copper Inventories Likely to Reverse After Two Weeks of Consecutive Increases; Macro Front May Continue to Weigh on Copper Prices [SMM Commentary]

게시됨: Jan 3, 2025 19:22
[SMM Commentary: Domestic Copper Inventories Likely to Reverse After Two Weeks of Consecutive Increases; Macro Front May Continue to Weigh on Copper Prices] The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week fell to an eight-month low, which the market interpreted as a sign of a still-resilient US job market. Coupled with concerns that the US Fed may adopt a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts in 2025 and that US tariff policies could exacerbate inflation and limit rate cuts, the US dollar index has recently hovered at a high level of 108, reaching a more than two-year high of 109.56 on January 2. Market concerns over macro uncertainties in 2025 and weakening end-use demand for copper have both put pressure on copper prices. As of 16:58 on January 3, LME copper rose by 0.06% to $8,808/mt, while its weekly performance showed a temporary decline of 1.94%. SHFE copper fell by 0.52% to 72,920 yuan/mt, with a weekly decline of 1.92%.
SMM January 3 News: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week fell to an eight-month low, interpreted by the market as a sign of a resilient US job market. Coupled with concerns that the US Fed may adopt a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts in 2025 and that US tariff policies could exacerbate inflation, potentially limiting rate cuts, the US dollar index has recently hovered around the high level of 108. On January 2, the US dollar index hit a more than two-year high of 109.56. Market concerns over macro uncertainties in 2025 and weakening copper end-use demand have pressured copper prices. As of 16:58 on January 3, LME copper rose 0.06% to $8,808/mt, while its weekly decline stood at 1.94%. SHFE copper fell 0.52% to 72,920 yuan/mt, with a weekly decline of 1.92%. 》Click to View SMM Futures Data DashboardFundamentalsSMM Copper Inventories in Major Regions Nationwide Increased for Two Consecutive WeeksDomestic Inventory: As of Thursday, January 2, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide increased by 1,200 mt from Monday to 114,300 mt, up 8,900 mt WoW, marking the second consecutive weekly increase. Compared to Monday's inventory changes, most regions saw an increase, with only Jiangsu and Tianjin experiencing slight declines. Total inventory was 37,400 mt higher YoY compared to 76,900 mt in the same period last year. Specifically, Shanghai's inventory increased by 300 mt from Monday to 79,100 mt, mainly due to continued arrivals of imported copper. Jiangsu's inventory decreased by 1,800 mt to 18,800 mt, primarily due to lower arrivals of domestic copper. Guangdong's inventory increased by 3,500 mt to 10,000 mt, reflecting significantly weakened downstream consumption in the region, as evidenced by the continued decline in Guangdong's daily outflows from warehouses.》Click to View DetailsLME Copper Inventory: LME copper inventories stood at 269,800 mt on January 3, down 2,925 mt compared to 272,725 mt on December 27.COMEX Copper Inventory: COMEX copper inventories were 93,372 short tons on January 2, down 2,266 short tons compared to 95,638 short tons on December 26.Most Copper Cathode Rod Plants Conduct Maintenance During New Year Holiday; Copper Wire and Cable Enterprises' Weekly Operating Rates Decline for Four Consecutive Weeks》Click to View SMM Metal Industry Chain DatabaseCopper Cathode Rod: This week, SMM surveyed the production and sales of major medium and large copper rod enterprises in China. Overall, operating rates declined MoM, falling short of expectations (surveyed enterprises: 21, capacity: 8.13 million mt). Spanning the year-end period of 2024-2025, most enterprises focused on cash recovery and scheduled maintenance, with varying degrees of production cuts and shutdowns. During this period, downstream order placement and picking up goods also slowed, leading to a sharper-than-expected decline in operating rates.》Click to View DetailsWire and Cable: This week, SMM copper wire and cable enterprises' operating rates declined both YoY and MoM. Compared to expected operating rates, they were only 0.36 percentage points higher, aligning with seasonal weakening expectations. As the year-end approached, market purchasing enthusiasm waned, and order volumes significantly decreased. Although 2025 has begun, the sharp drop in copper prices has led most customers to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Orders accumulated into 2025 have yet to be significantly released, and the market remains focused on copper price trends.》Click to View DetailsOutlookMacro Front: Domestic: Next week, attention will focus on China's December CPI and PPI data, as well as potentially released social financing and M2 data. Overseas: Focus will be on speeches by US Fed officials, US job openings data, ADP employment data, the Fed meeting minutes, and non-farm payrolls data, all of which could influence the US dollar's trajectory.Fundamentals: Looking ahead, this week's copper concentrate index continues to decline, and spot market transactions remain sluggish. Overseas blister copper long-term contract BM has fallen below triple digits for the first time in years. The long-term tight supply of copper raw materials shows no signs of improvement, providing support for copper prices on the raw material side. Inventory: According to SMM, smelter shipments are expected to decrease next week compared to this week (as smelters cleared inventories this week), and arrivals of imported copper are unlikely to increase significantly. Total supply is expected to be slightly lower WoW. On the downstream consumption side, ample early-year funds are expected to boost consumption WoW. Therefore, SMM anticipates a scenario of reduced supply and increased demand next week, potentially leading to a decline in weekly inventories. LME and COMEX copper inventories both experienced destocking this week, and attention will focus on whether this trend continues next week.In Summary: Copper downstream operating rates may rebound next week compared to this week. If domestic copper inventories end their "two-week increase," it could support copper prices. However, as Trump's inauguration date approaches, concerns over the US Fed's rate cut outlook and US tariff policies are intensifying. The US dollar index hovering at high levels will continue to weigh on copper prices. Future attention will focus on the impact of US data releases on the US dollar index. Additionally, from a weekly perspective, the US dollar index has risen for five consecutive weeks, and a potential pullback next week could ease its pressure on copper prices. In the absence of unexpected macro data or policies, the fundamentals are expected to improve, supporting copper prices. However, the macro front, with the US dollar remaining at high levels even if it pulls back, will continue to exert some pressure on copper prices. This may result in copper prices fluctuating downward. Technically, attention should be paid to the support strength at key psychological levels.Institutional Views: China Fortune Futures stated that from Wednesday to Friday this week, SHFE copper saw continuous open interest increases and price declines, with bears dominating the futures market. Prices have fallen below the key level of 73,000 yuan, and the domestic macro front is in a vacuum period, making the US dollar one of the main factors influencing the non-ferrous market. Guotai Junan Futures Research Report pointed out that the market expects a stronger US economy, with fewer rate cuts this year compared to Europe. Technically, LME copper has some support at $8,700, while SHFE copper may continue to decline toward 72,000 yuan. Bank of America (BofA) analysts emphasized: "With producers cutting capital expenditures, copper mine projects have gradually decreased over the past decade. BofA forecasts a supply gap of approximately 409,000 mt this year, with inventories falling to levels sufficient to meet only 1.2 weeks of global demand. BofA expects the average copper price in 2025 to reach $9,438/mt ($4.28/lb), driven by constrained supply and sustained demand." UBS analysts noted that demand growth will continue to be supported by electrification and power grid infrastructure, predicting growth in these areas "slightly above historical trends, with an annual growth rate of approximately 2.5%." They also forecast mine supply growth of only 2% in 2025, adding that "benchmark processing and refining fees have hit historical lows, the copper scrap market is tightening, and refined copper growth is limited."Recommended Reading:》Most Copper Cathode Rod Plants Conduct Maintenance During New Year Holiday; Production Expected to Resume in the First Week of 2025 [SMM Analysis]》Copper Wire and Cable Enterprises' Weekly Operating Rates Decline for Four Consecutive Weeks! Will They Stabilize Next Week? [SMM Analysis]》Weekly Copper Inventory in Major Regions Nationwide Increased by 1,200 mt [SMM Weekly Data]

데이터 출처 설명: 공개 정보를 제외한 모든 데이터는 SMM이 공개 정보, 시장 커뮤니케이션 및 SMM 내부 데이터베이스 모델을 기반으로 가공한 것입니다. 본 자료는 참고용이며 의사결정 권고를 구성하지 않습니다.

문의 사항이 있거나 자세한 정보를 원하시면 아래로 연락해 주시기 바랍니다: lemonzhao@smm.cn
리서치 보고서 열람 방법에 대한 자세한 내용은 아래로 문의하시기 바랍니다:service.en@smm.cn
관련 뉴스
잉촹 인터내셔널, SMM의 '2026 글로벌 2차 구리 산업 분포 지도' 제작 지원
8분 전
잉촹 인터내셔널, SMM의 '2026 글로벌 2차 구리 산업 분포 지도' 제작 지원
더 보기
잉촹 인터내셔널, SMM의 '2026 글로벌 2차 구리 산업 분포 지도' 제작 지원
잉촹 인터내셔널, SMM의 '2026 글로벌 2차 구리 산업 분포 지도' 제작 지원
8분 전
미드나이트 선, 잠비아 덤바 구리 광상 2단계 탐사 착수
15분 전
미드나이트 선, 잠비아 덤바 구리 광상 2단계 탐사 착수
더 보기
미드나이트 선, 잠비아 덤바 구리 광상 2단계 탐사 착수
미드나이트 선, 잠비아 덤바 구리 광상 2단계 탐사 착수
미드나이트 선 마이닝은 잠비아에 있는 자사가 100% 소유한 덤브와 구리 광상에서 2단계 탐사를 시작했으며, 광범위한 체계적 시추에서 고품위 구리 구역을 식별하고 확장하는 것을 목표로 한 보다 표적화된 프로그램으로 전환했다. 새로운 단계에서는 고해상도 지상 자력 탐사, 유도 분극 물리 탐사, 토양 지구화학 탐사 및 다이아몬드 시추를 결합하는 동시에, 알려진 광화 회랑의 잠재적 연장부와 동쪽 및 서쪽에서 새로 확인된 구조대를 시험할 예정이다. 이 프로그램은 1단계에서 완료된 약 7만 5천 미터의 시추를 기반으로 하며, 미드나이트 선에 따르면 이 시추를 통해 주요 남북 방향 회랑을 따라 여러 개의 고품위 구리 광화 구역이 확인되었다. 1단계 시추는 여전히 진행 중이며 2026년 3분기 말까지 완료될 예정이고, 현재 시추는 북부 블록으로 이동하고 있으며 초기 11.5km 길이의 덤브와 회랑을 따라 추가 고품위 광화 구역을 시험하기 위해 더 넓은 간격의 시추를 활용하고 있다. 미드나이트 선은 더 넓은 덤브와 시스템이 약 20km에 달하는 토양 내 구리 이상대와 관련이 있다고 밝혔다. 확장된 고해상도 자력 탐사가 현재 전체 이상대에 걸쳐 확대 적용되고 있으며, 추가로 19.1 라인-km의 유도 분극 탐사가 진행 중이다. 초기 자력 탐사 작업을 통해 주요 덤브와 회랑에서 동쪽으로 약 1.0~1.2km 떨어진 곳에서 이전에 시험되지 않은 두 개의 표적이 이미 확인되었으며, 이들은 고품위 구리 광화와 관련된 지역과 유사한 자력 특성을 보인다. 2단계 착수는 덤브와의 광역적 규모와 지질학적 구조를 정의하는 것에서 더 높은 우선순위의 구리 표적을 선별적으로 시추하는 방향으로 전환했음을 의미한다. 이 프로그램은 여전히 탐사 단계에 있으며 아직 광물 자원량이나 미래 생산 프로필을 확립하지는 않았지만, 광범위한 1단계 시추와 새로 확인된 지구물리학적 표적의 결합은 탐사가 진행됨에 따라 미드나이트 선이 덤브와 시스템의 규모, 연속성 및 품위 분포를 더 잘 정의하는 데 도움이 될 수 있다.
15분 전
구리 가격 하락세 멈추고 안정세; 스크랩 활용 기업 적극 매입 [SMM 재생 구리 일일 리뷰]
28분 전
구리 가격 하락세 멈추고 안정세; 스크랩 활용 기업 적극 매입 [SMM 재생 구리 일일 리뷰]
더 보기
구리 가격 하락세 멈추고 안정세; 스크랩 활용 기업 적극 매입 [SMM 재생 구리 일일 리뷰]
구리 가격 하락세 멈추고 안정세; 스크랩 활용 기업 적극 매입 [SMM 재생 구리 일일 리뷰]
28분 전
Domestic Copper Inventories Likely to Reverse After Two Weeks of Consecutive Increases; Macro Front May Continue to Weigh on Copper Prices [SMM Commentary] - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)