SMM, January 3: This week, the bismuth market prices, after experiencing a period of weak downward trend, did not continue to weaken during the New Year crossover week despite the off-season impact. Instead, many manufacturers raised their bismuth selling prices before the beginning of the year. From the transaction performance, bismuth prices have started to show a long-awaited rebound. Notably, the recent bidding transaction prices for a batch of bismuth concentrate have risen significantly. According to unofficial sources, the recent bismuth concentrate transaction prices, when converted into refined bismuth prices, may exceed 76,500 yuan/mt. As a result, the rise in raw material prices has provided strong confidence support to the spot bismuth market. This week, with the overall strengthening of bismuth prices, buying interest from downstream buyers and even speculators has gradually increased. After the previous continuous decline, bismuth prices pulled back to near annual lows, reducing price risks and reigniting interest in stockpiling bismuth on the consumption side. As of this weekend, SMM's mainstream prices for bismuth ingots stood at 73,000-74,000 yuan/mt. Many market participants generally believe that, due to the earlier Chinese New Year this year, downstream stocking during the holiday period may have some impact on bismuth market prices.
According to SMM's assessment, China's refined bismuth production in December 2024 is estimated to have decreased significantly by approximately 28.77% MoM compared to November 2024. After consecutive declines in September and October, production saw another sharp pullback. From the perspective of manufacturers' production, as the year-end approaches, many manufacturers have entered equipment maintenance periods, coupled with increasingly tight raw material supply. Additionally, manufacturers' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials at year-end has declined. Although some manufacturers still need to accelerate production in Q4 to meet annual targets, most manufacturers experienced a production decline, with only a few showing slight growth. Therefore, market participants generally consider the significant production decline in December to be within expectations. From detailed data, among SMM's 24 surveyed entities, six manufacturers saw a significant production decline in December, two manufacturers experienced a notable production increase, and one manufacturer halted production. This led to a substantial MoM decline in overall bismuth ingot production in December. Consequently, many market participants expect that, with the Chinese New Year holiday starting at the end of January, China's refined bismuth production in January 2025 is likely to continue decreasing, with little chance of remaining stable.
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