Silicon Wafer Prices Rise Again, Market Sentiment Improves [SMM Weekly Review]

Polysilicon: This week, the mainstream transaction prices for P-type dense material were 36-38 yuan/kg, while N-type silicon material prices were 39-43 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained largely stable this week. With the listing of futures, market activity increased slightly. Additionally, downstream producers stockpiled for the Chinese New Year, with order volumes exceeding previous expectations. By the end of December, polysilicon inventory dropped to just over 200,000 mt. Some polysilicon producers raised their quotations, with the highest price reaching 45 yuan/kg. However, downstream acceptance was limited, and both upstream and downstream players mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach.

Silicon Wafer: This week, domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers were priced at 1.1-1.15 yuan/piece, N-type 210R wafers at 1.2-1.25 yuan/piece, and N-type 210mm wafers at 1.42-1.45 yuan/piece. Silicon wafer prices continued to rise slightly this week, with prices increasing across almost all sizes. Inventory levels remained relatively low, and tight deliveries provided strong support for prices. Leading manufacturers actively pushed for price increases. On January 2, two earthquakes in Yinchuan affected local crystal pulling operations to some extent, but the overall impact on supply and demand was limited. However, market sentiment supported further price increases for silicon wafers.

Solar Cell: This week, the transaction price center for solar cells rose across the board. The mainstream transaction range for Topcon183 cells was 0.28-0.285 yuan/W, though a small number of orders were executed at 0.27-0.275 yuan/W. Export prices increased to 0.3 yuan/W, while the highest domestic quotation reached 0.29 yuan/W. The price range for Topcon210RN cells was 0.27-0.275 yuan/W, and for Topcon210N cells, it was 0.285-0.29 yuan/W, with limited trading volume at higher price levels. This week, solar cell manufacturers had not yet started their holiday breaks, with most maintaining normal production and smooth shipments.

PV Module: In the PV module market this week, the mainstream transaction prices for centralized PERC182mm modules were 0.63-0.68 yuan/W, PERC210mm modules were 0.64-0.69 yuan/W, N-type 182mm modules were 0.64-0.69 yuan/W, and N-type 210mm modules were 0.65-0.7 yuan/W. Mainstream transaction prices remained stagnant, though special-priced modules were still traded in the residential market. With rising upstream silicon wafer and solar cell prices, module manufacturers are expected to raise quotations by 0.01-0.02 yuan/W. However, downstream acceptance remains unclear. As the Q1 off-season approaches, companies are producing based on sales and focusing on selling inventory. Overall, January production schedules are down 18% MoM. Year-end destocking significantly eased inventory pressure compared to earlier levels.

End-User: During the week of December 23-29, 2024, SMM statistics showed that domestic enterprises won bids for 37 PV module projects, with winning bid prices concentrated in the range of 0.63-0.69 yuan/W. The weighted average price for the week was 0.71 yuan/W, up 0.03 yuan/W from the previous week. The total procurement capacity awarded was 2,129.71 MW, down 1,522.71 MW from the previous week. As 2024 concluded, the grid connection rush for large-scale base projects ended, with December's monthly grid connection volume expected to exceed 35 GW. Annual new installations grew by over 10%. Before the Chinese New Year in January, a small number of ground-mounted power stations are expected to complete grid connections, while demand in the commercial and industrial sectors weakened significantly. Residential projects are rushing to complete installations before the holiday. Overall, Q1 remains a domestic off-season for demand, with limited installation volumes expected before and after the holiday.

PV Glass: This week, PV glass quotations remained stable. As of now, the mainstream quotation for 2.0mm single-layer coating is 12.0 yuan/m², while 3.2mm single-layer coating is quoted at 19.5 yuan/m², down 0.5 yuan/m². Due to the approach of new order signings, transactions were limited this week, with upstream and downstream enterprises mainly negotiating prices. However, as module demand decreases due to the Chinese New Year break and the delay in furnace cold repair plans has limited reductions, PV glass is expected to experience a supply surplus in January. Some glass companies offered slight discounts to secure orders, adopting volume discounts to reduce inventory. For future price forecasts, approximately 3,000 mt/day of furnace cold repair plans are expected in January, reducing supply to just over 40 GW domestically. Domestic demand is expected to drop to around 37 GW, with an additional 3 GW of overseas demand. Domestic supply is expected to be slightly tight in January, keeping glass prices stable overall. However, some high-inventory glass companies may increase their willingness to sell at discounts, with some transaction prices potentially declining by 0.1-0.2 yuan/m².

High-Purity Quartz Sand: This week, domestic high-purity quartz sand prices remained stable. Current market quotations are as follows: inner layer sand at 65,000-75,000 yuan/mt, middle layer sand at 35,000-40,000 yuan/mt, and outer layer sand at 19,000-25,000 yuan/mt. Prices remained stable, but recent mining operations in India faced some "bottleneck" issues. Consequently, domestic top-tier enterprises are expected to reduce production, leading to a potential decline in the output of domestic inner and middle layer sand. With supply tightness from top-tier enterprises, companies are planning to raise quotations, though final prices have not yet been finalized due to ongoing negotiations. On the demand side, domestic silicon wafer production has increased compared to earlier levels, but crucible production remains low, with some orders consuming existing inventories. Overall, changes in quartz sand demand are limited, and supply remains in surplus. Future price trends are expected to fluctuate, with potential price increases facing resistance from crucible enterprises, leading to continued price negotiations.

Encapsulation Film: This week, EVA transparent film prices were 12,600-13,000 yuan/mt, EPE co-extruded film prices were 15,000-15,300 yuan/mt, and POE film prices were 18,000-19,000 yuan/mt.

EVA/POE: PV-grade EVA prices ranged from 10,350-10,700 yuan/mt, while POE prices were 12,000-13,800 yuan/mt. The EVA market experienced shortages due to the pre-scheduling of production plans for the Chinese New Year and reduced supply. PV-grade POE prices remained stable.

Backsheet: Currently, the market price for white CPC backsheet with double fluorine coating is around 4.8-5.3 yuan/m², while transparent CPC backsheet with double fluorine coating is priced at 11.3-12.3 yuan/m². Around the New Year, backsheet market orders remained weak, with few new orders signed by leading manufacturers. Only a few manufacturers maintained production schedules at last month's levels based on existing orders, while most saw significant declines in January production schedules, operating at minimal levels to keep production lines running. Recent new order transactions were scarce, and backsheet prices remained stable at low levels. In the future, single-glass capacity in downstream module production may continue to decrease, further shrinking backsheet demand. The overall industry outlook remains pessimistic, with manufacturers showing a generally negative sentiment.

Inverter: This week, inverter prices were as follows: 20 kW models at 0.12-0.16 yuan/W, 50 kW models at 0.11-0.15 yuan/W, 110 kW models at 0.1-0.14 yuan/W, and 320 kW models at 0.09-0.11 yuan/W. Supply-side production remained stable and sufficient, while overall demand sentiment was mediocre, with large-power string and centralized models dominating shipments.

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