Ore prices continue to rise, driving the alumina cost support line upward [SMM Analysis]

SMM December 29 News:

As of today, according to SMM's daily cost model calculations, the full cost of alumina has risen to 3,404 yuan/mt, up by 197 yuan/mt from the beginning of the month, an increase of 6.1%; and up by 637 yuan/mt YoY, an increase of 24.5%. Among them, bauxite costs increased by 206 yuan/mt from the beginning of the month, an increase of 11.9%; and increased by 618 yuan/mt YoY, an increase of 47.1%.

As of now, the tight supply situation of domestic bauxite has not eased, and bauxite prices continued to rise throughout December. In November, bauxite costs for alumina production increased by 10.9% from the beginning of the month, while in December, bauxite costs for alumina production increased by 11.9%, with the growth rate of ore costs expanding. By the end of December, the proportion of ore costs in the alumina cost structure had reached 57%, up by 4 percentage points from 53% MoM, and up by 10 percentage points from 47% YoY.

Based on the current spot prices of bauxite, the cost of producing alumina in high-cost regions such as Shanxi and Henan, using imported ore, has exceeded 4,000 yuan/mt, with the cost support line for alumina continuing to rise. In the short term, ore prices are expected to fluctuate upward, and alumina costs are likely to continue increasing.

(The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not replace independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)

Data Source: SMM Click on the SMM Industry Database for more information

(Mingxin Guo 021-51595800)