PV Prices Rose Across Multiple Segments This Week; Focus on Module Prices Moving Forward [SMM Weekly Review]

Polysilicon: This week, the mainstream transaction prices for P-type dense material were 36-38 yuan/kg, while N-type silicon material transaction prices were 39-42 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained largely stable this week, influenced by multiple factors such as downstream price increases and the listing of futures. Some producers continued to raise quotations. Currently, downstream buyers remain in a wait-and-see mode, coupled with significant prior transactions of silicon material. As procurement nears its end, recent transaction volumes of polysilicon have slightly pulled back, with market sentiment dominated by cautious back-and-forth negotiations.

Silicon Wafer: This week, domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers were priced at 1.05-1.1 yuan/piece, N-type 210R wafers at 1.12-1.15 yuan/piece, and N-type 210mm wafers at 1.4-1.42 yuan/piece. Silicon wafer prices continued to see a slight increase this week, mainly in the 183mm size. Overall inventory levels of silicon wafers continued to decline, and some models faced tight delivery schedules, providing support for prices.

Solar Cell: This week, solar cell prices increased, primarily for the 18X series sizes. The highest price for PERC182 cells rose from 0.295 to 0.3 yuan/W, Topcon183 cells from 0.28 to 0.29 yuan/W, and 210RN cells from 0.265 to 0.275 yuan/W. The upward trend in cell prices was driven by rising silicon wafer costs and the impact of production cuts in January. Leading battery manufacturers actively raised prices, prompting widespread increases among other first- and second-tier manufacturers. Current transaction orders are mainly overseas, with only a few domestic orders. Back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream persist, and January cell prices are expected to remain stagnant.

PV Module: In the PV module market this week, mainstream transaction prices for centralized PERC182mm modules were 0.64-0.7 yuan/W, PERC210mm modules at 0.65-0.71 yuan/W, N-type 182mm modules at 0.63-0.7 yuan/W, and N-type 210mm modules at 0.65-0.71 yuan/W. Despite a strong atmosphere of price firmness, the distributed market saw chaotic execution prices, with low prices continuing to decline. As the off-season of Q1 approaches, companies are producing based on sales to help reduce high inventory levels. Most companies have planned holidays of 10-15 days or more, and overall operating rates are expected to continue declining, with planned production below 40GW. With upstream raw material and auxiliary material prices rebounding, module prices in Q1 may temporarily stabilize or even recover slightly, considering reduced inventory pressure and cost support.

End-User: During the week of December 16-22, 2024, SMM statistics showed that domestic companies won bids for 38 PV module projects, with winning bid prices concentrated in the range of 0.62-0.69 yuan/W. The weighted average price for the week was 0.63 yuan/W, down 0.06 yuan/W from the previous week. The total procurement capacity awarded was 3,652.42MW, a decrease of 2,519.83MW compared to the previous week. From January to November 2024, China's cumulative new PV installations exceeded 200GW. In December, ground-mounted power stations were gradually completed. Under the construction of the second batch of wind and solar power bases, ground-mounted projects are expected to achieve large-scale grid connections, boosting monthly new installations. However, many projects faced delays due to issues such as grid absorption, approvals, and poor yields. Overseas, rush-for-installation demand was mainly driven by ground-mounted power stations and independent PV ESS systems in countries like India, the US, and Africa, while other regions generally entered the off-season.

Encapsulation Film: This week, EVA transparent film prices ranged from 12,600 to 13,000 yuan/mt, EPE co-extruded film prices were 15,000-15,300 yuan/mt, and POE film prices were 18,000-19,000 yuan/mt.

EVA/POE: PV-grade EVA prices were transacted at 10,500-11,100 yuan/mt, while POE transaction prices ranged from 12,000 to 13,800 yuan/mt. In the short term, some EVA producers slightly corrected prices downward, and the overall market price stabilized. PV POE prices struggled to rise.

PV Glass: This week, PV glass quotations remained temporarily stable. As of now, the mainstream quotation for 2.0mm single-layer coating is 12.0 yuan/m², and for 3.2mm single-layer coating, it is 20.0 yuan/m². Domestic PV glass market transaction prices remained stable this week. Recent domestic supply reductions fell short of expectations, with December reductions being relatively limited. Daily kiln shutdowns amounted to less than 1,000 mt/day, and no cold repairs were reported. On the demand side, recent module production schedules are not high, with overall industry production schedules maintaining around 45GW, keeping supply and demand relatively balanced. Prices are temporarily stable. Regarding future price trends, mainstream transaction prices are expected to remain stable. In January, there are plans for kiln cold repairs. Under the backdrop of weak supply and demand, glass inventory pressure is relatively limited. Prices are likely to remain stable, but after structural adjustments in backsheet glass prices, quotations may increase. However, whether transactions can be realized will still require negotiations.

High-Purity Quartz Sand: This week, domestic high-purity quartz sand prices remained stable. Current market quotations are as follows: inner layer sand at 65,000-75,000 yuan/mt, middle layer sand at 35,000-40,000 yuan/mt, and outer layer sand at 19,000-25,000 yuan/mt. Prices are temporarily stable. As January approaches, downstream crucible manufacturers' operating rates have declined again, and silicon wafer production schedules remain at low levels, leading to average demand for quartz sand. On the supply side, due to recent price declines in the market, some outer layer sand producers have increased their willingness to switch production. Operating loads at active enterprises have significantly decreased compared to earlier periods, and supply reductions have provided some price support. Future price adjustments are expected to remain limited, with negotiations being the primary focus.

Backsheet: Currently, the market price for white CPC backsheet with double fluorine coating is around 4.8-5.3 yuan/m², while transparent CPC backsheet with double fluorine coating is priced at 11.3-12.3 yuan/m². Some downstream module companies have completed pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling in December, and overall January backsheet market order demand continues to weaken. Backsheet prices are largely stable, with new orders for conventional CPC backsheets priced around 5 yuan/m². Currently, only a few leading domestic backsheet manufacturers are maintaining production, while manufacturers that previously shut down production lines plan to resume production only after the Chinese New Year. Short-term production recovery is not considered, and the overall market supply and demand remain weak. Additionally, leading backsheet manufacturers have reported pessimistic order signing conditions for January, and overall backsheet production schedules are expected to hit new lows.

Inverter: This week, inverter price ranges were as follows: 20kW at 0.12-0.16 yuan/W, 50kW at 0.11-0.15 yuan/W, 110kW at 0.1-0.14 yuan/W, and 320kW at 0.09-0.11 yuan/W. On the supply side, production remained stable and sufficient, while overall demand sentiment was mediocre. The year-end and Q1 grid connection schedules for both domestic and international markets have begun, with favorable conditions in the string-type commercial and industrial sectors as well as the centralized market.

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