SMM Analysis: Significant Drop in China's Copper Concentrate Imports from Africa and Indonesia Forecasted for 2025

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Dec 27, 2024 14:55
[SMM Analysis: China's Copper Concentrate Imports From Africa and Indonesia Expected to Drop Significantly in 2025] According to SMM, with the completion of the Kamoa smelter construction next year and its commissioning in May-June 2025, China's copper concentrate imports from the DRC will significantly decrease starting next year, while its copper anode imports from the DRC will increase substantially. Indonesia's PT Amman is expected to be commissioned early next year, and the Manyar smelter is anticipated to begin production in H2 next year. Due to Indonesia's ban on copper concentrate exports, China's copper concentrate imports from Indonesia will also drop significantly next year. India's Adani smelter is expected to be commissioned around mid-next year, which will divert South American supplies to India. Consequently, China's copper concentrate imports from South America are also expected to face competition next year.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์šด์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ๊ตฌ๋งค๊ฐ€ ์œ„์ถ•๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ๊ณผ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
21๋ถ„ ์ „
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์šด์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ๊ตฌ๋งค๊ฐ€ ์œ„์ถ•๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ๊ณผ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์šด์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ๊ตฌ๋งค๊ฐ€ ์œ„์ถ•๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ๊ณผ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์šด์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ๊ตฌ๋งค๊ฐ€ ์œ„์ถ•๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ๊ณผ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์š” ๋ถ€์ง„์ด ์ด์ค‘ ์••๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘์šฉํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์—…๊ณ„๋Š” ์นจ์ฒด๋œ ํ๋ฆ„์„ ์ด์–ด๊ฐ”๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์—…๊ณ„ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ์€ ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 2.47%ํฌ์ธํŠธ ํ•˜๋ฝํ–ˆ๊ณ , ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋Š” ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 1.14%ํฌ์ธํŠธ ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
21๋ถ„ ์ „
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์œ„์ถ•, ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ์†Œ [SMM ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์‹œ์žฅ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
25๋ถ„ ์ „
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์œ„์ถ•, ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ์†Œ [SMM ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์‹œ์žฅ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์œ„์ถ•, ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ์†Œ [SMM ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์‹œ์žฅ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์œ„์ถ•, ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ์†Œ [SMM ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์‹œ์žฅ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์—…๊ณ„ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ์ด ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ(8์›” 21์ผ~8์›” 27์ผ) ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ ํ•˜๋ฝํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค ....
25๋ถ„ ์ „
์บก์Šคํ†ค, ์‚ฐ ํ”ผ์—ํŠธ๋กœ ์ธ์ˆ˜ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์•„ํƒ€์นด๋งˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ง€๊ตฌ ํ†ตํ•ฉ
33๋ถ„ ์ „
์บก์Šคํ†ค, ์‚ฐ ํ”ผ์—ํŠธ๋กœ ์ธ์ˆ˜ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์•„ํƒ€์นด๋งˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ง€๊ตฌ ํ†ตํ•ฉ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์บก์Šคํ†ค, ์‚ฐ ํ”ผ์—ํŠธ๋กœ ์ธ์ˆ˜ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์•„ํƒ€์นด๋งˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ง€๊ตฌ ํ†ตํ•ฉ
์บก์Šคํ†ค, ์‚ฐ ํ”ผ์—ํŠธ๋กœ ์ธ์ˆ˜ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์•„ํƒ€์นด๋งˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ง€๊ตฌ ํ†ตํ•ฉ
์บก์Šคํ†ค ์ฝ”ํผ๋Š” 2026๋…„ 8์›” 31์ผ ์น ๋ ˆ ์•„ํƒ€์นด๋งˆ ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ์‚ฐ ํ”ผ์—ํŠธ๋กœ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ-๊ธˆ-์ฒ -์ฝ”๋ฐœํŠธ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์ธ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์™„๋ฃŒํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ณจ๋“  ์• ๋กœ์šฐ์™€ SSA์˜ ํ•ฉ์ž‘๋ฒ•์ธ์ธ ๋‰ด ๊ณจ๋“  ์ต์Šคํ”Œ๋กœ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ์น ๋ ˆ์— ์บก์Šคํ†ค ์ฃผ์‹ 2,500๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์–ด์น˜๋ฅผ ์ง€๊ธ‰ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋งŒํ† ๋ฒ ๋ฅด๋ฐ, ์‚ฐํ†  ๋„๋ฐ๊ณ , ์‹œ์—๋ผ ๋…ธ๋ฅดํ…Œ ๊ด‘๊ตฌ ์‚ฌ์ด์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ ์‚ฐ ํ”ผ์—ํŠธ๋กœ๋Š” ์•ฝ 1๋งŒ 6,000ํ—ฅํƒ€๋ฅด์˜ ์œ ๋ง ๋ถ€์ง€๋ฅผ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ฆฐ์ฝ”๋„ค์Šค ๋ฐ ์ฝ”์•ผ ๋งค์žฅ์ง€์—๋Š” ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ 0.23%, ๊ธˆ 0.05g/t์˜ ์ถ”์ • ๊ด‘๋Ÿ‰ 4์–ต 9,200๋งŒ ํ†ค์ด ๋ถ€์กด๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ 20km ๋‚ด ์บก์Šคํ†ค์˜ ๊ด‘๊ถŒ์—๋Š” ํ˜„์žฌ ์ธก์ • ๋ฐ ์ง€์‹œ ๊ด‘๋Ÿ‰ ์•ฝ 16์–ต ํ†ค๊ณผ ์ถ”์ • ๊ด‘๋Ÿ‰ 14์–ต ํ†ค์ด ํ™•๋ณด๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. 2024๋…„ ์‹œ์—๋ผ ๋…ธ๋ฅดํ…Œ ์ธ์ˆ˜์™€ 2025๋…„ ENAMI ์˜ต์…˜์— ์ด์€ ์ด๋ฒˆ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋กœ ๊ด‘๊ตฌ ์ธํ”„๋ผ๊ฐ€ ํ†ตํ•ฉ๋˜๊ณ  ํ–ฅํ›„ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์„ฑ์žฅ ์˜ต์…˜์ด ํ™•๋Œ€๋œ๋‹ค.
33๋ถ„ ์ „
[SMM Analysis: China's Copper Concentrate Imports From Africa and Indo - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)