SMM Analysis: US Fed Cuts Rates but Signals Slower Pace of Future Cuts, Tone Turns Hawkish

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Dec 20, 2024 21:22
[SMM Analysis] In terms of macroeconomics, this week, the US Fed lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points as expected, while the dot plot indicated that only two interest rate cuts are expected in 2025, suggesting a significantly slower pace of rate cuts in the future, with an overall hawkish tone. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated at the press conference that although the current policy rate remains restrictive, the US Fed will act more cautiously as it approaches a neutral level. Compared to the accelerated easing monetary policy under the pressure of economic recession in the Eurozone, the US Fed's interest rate curve for 2025 is gradually flattening.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน๊ณผ ๋น„์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ์ˆ˜์š”๋กœ ์‚ฐ๋‘ฅ ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋‘”ํ™”; ํ˜„๋ฌผ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„ ํ†ค๋‹น 110์œ„์•ˆ
9๋ถ„ ์ „
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน๊ณผ ๋น„์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ์ˆ˜์š”๋กœ ์‚ฐ๋‘ฅ ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋‘”ํ™”; ํ˜„๋ฌผ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„ ํ†ค๋‹น 110์œ„์•ˆ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน๊ณผ ๋น„์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ์ˆ˜์š”๋กœ ์‚ฐ๋‘ฅ ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋‘”ํ™”; ํ˜„๋ฌผ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„ ํ†ค๋‹น 110์œ„์•ˆ
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน๊ณผ ๋น„์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ์ˆ˜์š”๋กœ ์‚ฐ๋‘ฅ ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋‘”ํ™”; ํ˜„๋ฌผ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„ ํ†ค๋‹น 110์œ„์•ˆ
์‚ฐ๋‘ฅ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Œ๊ทน์žฌ: ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ๋†’์€ ์ˆ˜์ค€์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ–ˆ๊ณ  ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ์ „ํ†ต์ ์ธ ๋น„์ˆ˜๊ธฐ์— ์ ‘์–ด๋“ค๋ฉด์„œ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ์ „๋ฐ˜์˜ ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Š” ๋ถ€์ง„ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ชฉ์š”์ผ ๊ธฐ์ค€ ํ˜„๋ฌผ์€ ํ†ค๋‹น 110์œ„์•ˆ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์œผ๋กœ ์ œ์‹œ๋๋‹ค.
9๋ถ„ ์ „
์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๋ถ€์ง„, ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ 110์œ„์•ˆ/mt๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฝ [SMM ์‚ฐ๋‘ฅ ์ „๊ธฐ๋™ ํ˜„๋ฌผ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
11๋ถ„ ์ „
์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๋ถ€์ง„, ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ 110์œ„์•ˆ/mt๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฝ [SMM ์‚ฐ๋‘ฅ ์ „๊ธฐ๋™ ํ˜„๋ฌผ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๋ถ€์ง„, ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ 110์œ„์•ˆ/mt๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฝ [SMM ์‚ฐ๋‘ฅ ์ „๊ธฐ๋™ ํ˜„๋ฌผ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๋ถ€์ง„, ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ 110์œ„์•ˆ/mt๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฝ [SMM ์‚ฐ๋‘ฅ ์ „๊ธฐ๋™ ํ˜„๋ฌผ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
11๋ถ„ ์ „
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์œˆ์œˆ ๋ฉ”ํƒˆ์Šค ์ธ๋”์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆฌ(SMM CCAE 2026(์ œ15ํšŒ) ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์—ฐ๋ก€ ํšŒ์˜)์—์„œ ๋น›๋‚˜๋‹ค
13๋ถ„ ์ „
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์œˆ์œˆ ๋ฉ”ํƒˆ์Šค ์ธ๋”์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆฌ(SMM CCAE 2026(์ œ15ํšŒ) ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์—ฐ๋ก€ ํšŒ์˜)์—์„œ ๋น›๋‚˜๋‹ค
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์œˆ์œˆ ๋ฉ”ํƒˆ์Šค ์ธ๋”์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆฌ(SMM CCAE 2026(์ œ15ํšŒ) ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์—ฐ๋ก€ ํšŒ์˜)์—์„œ ๋น›๋‚˜๋‹ค
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์œˆ์œˆ ๋ฉ”ํƒˆ์Šค ์ธ๋”์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆฌ(SMM CCAE 2026(์ œ15ํšŒ) ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์—ฐ๋ก€ ํšŒ์˜)์—์„œ ๋น›๋‚˜๋‹ค
13๋ถ„ ์ „
[SMM Analysis] In terms of macroeconomics, this week, the US Fed lower - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)