Low Inventories of Lead Ingots & Tight Raw Material Supply Provide Support for Lead Prices [SMM Lead Morning Comment Dec 17]

Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,012/mt and fluctuated rangebound during the Asian session. Entering the European session, LME lead rebounded to a high of $2,023.5/mt due to a weaker US dollar index. However, with increased short positions, LME lead plunged during late trading and closed at a low of $1,995/mt, down 0.92%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2501 contract opened at 17,470 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 17,550 yuan/mt in early trading, but was dragged down by LME lead decline. Longs reduced positions, and SHFE lead fell to 17,390 yuan/mt before closing at 17,395 yuan/mt, up 0.2%.

Macro side, the US December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading came in at 48.3, lower than expected and hitting a 3-month low. The December S&P Global Services PMI preliminary reading exceeded expectations at 58.5, marking a 38-month high. The December S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary reading also surpassed expectations at 56.6, reaching a 33-month high. The PBOC stated it would implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy, with timely RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. It will continue to support the resolution of debt risks for financing platforms and stabilize the real estate market.

Fundamentals, both primary and secondary lead weekly operating rates showed signs of decline. Currently, weekly finished product inventories at secondary lead smelting enterprises have hit historical lows, and in-plant inventories of primary lead major delivery brands remain tight. Meanwhile, weekly operating rates of downstream lead-acid battery producers slightly increased. Additionally, battery scrap supply remains tight, and its price continues to support lead prices.