Lithium battery and electronic circuit copper foil performances diverged, with overall slight decline in production and sales volumes in November [SMM Analysis]

According to SMM data, China's copper foil monthly production in November 2024 was 95,300 mt, down 0.18% MoM. Specifically, the monthly production of lithium battery copper foil in China was 60,900 mt, up 0.94% MoM; electronic circuit copper foil production was 34,400 mt, down 2.09% MoM. In the same month, lithium battery copper foil shipments were 52,700 mt, up 1.85% MoM; electronic circuit copper foil shipments were 30,900 mt, down 0.77% MoM.

In November, the production and sales volumes of lithium battery copper foil and electronic circuit copper foil diverged, with the total volume slightly declining. For lithium battery copper foil, end-use demand remained robust, with anode material production in China increasing by 6% MoM according to SMM data. In the power sector, robust demand was driven by automakers pushing for annual targets and the implementation of trade-in policies; in the energy storage sector, high downstream purchasing demand was noted as the year-end grid connection period approached. For electronic circuit copper foil, although orders from the automotive and high-end server industries were moderate, the cancellation of export tax rebates for copper foil and copper clad laminate (CCL) in December spurred exports in November. However, overall downstream buying sentiment was affected by the decline in copper price centers in November.

Looking ahead, SMM expects the total copper foil production in December 2024 to decline to 94,800 mt. Among this, lithium battery copper foil production is expected to be 59,900 mt, down 1.74% MoM; electronic circuit copper foil production is expected to be 34,900 mt, up 1.59% MoM. Lithium battery copper foil shipments are expected to be 51,500 mt, down 2.31% MoM; electronic circuit copper foil shipments are expected to be 31,200 mt, up 0.94% MoM.

As the year-end approaches, companies are expected to focus on capital recovery and inventory reduction, hence overall copper foil production and sales volumes are expected to slightly decline in December. Once again, performances of lithium battery copper foil and electronic circuit copper foil are expected to diverge. For lithium battery copper foil, despite the rush for installations in December, companies might control raw material inventories, with SMM expecting a 7% MoM decrease in anode material production in China. For electronic circuit copper foil, on one hand, there is pre-holiday stockpiling demand downstream; on the other hand, an increase in copper price centers in December is expected to boost downstream purchasing sentiment, thus end-use orders are expected to increase.