SMM Analysis: Macro Factors Boost Tin Prices, Ending Two-Month Decline; Eyes on Supply-Side Risks

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Dec 12, 2024 18:58
[SMM Analysis: Favourable Macro Front May Lead Tin Prices to End Two-Month Decline; Beware of Supply-Side Disruptions Causing Tin Prices to Turn Downward] Unlike the monthly declines in October and November, expectations for domestic favourable macro front, along with the alignment of US non-farm payrolls and November CPI data with market expectations, have led to increased expectations for US Fed interest rate cut in December, all of which have strengthened tin prices. As of 16:55 on December 12, LME tin rose by 0.99%, with a temporary monthly increase of 4.64% in December, compared to a 5.96% decline in November; SHFE tin rose by 1.17%, with a temporary monthly increase of 6.27% in December, compared to a 5.84% decline in November.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ: ์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(SHFE), ๋‹ค๋ก„์ƒํ’ˆ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(DCE) ์‹œ์žฅ ๋™ํ–ฅ (9์›” 2์ผ)
16์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ: ์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(SHFE), ๋‹ค๋ก„์ƒํ’ˆ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(DCE) ์‹œ์žฅ ๋™ํ–ฅ (9์›” 2์ผ)
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ: ์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(SHFE), ๋‹ค๋ก„์ƒํ’ˆ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(DCE) ์‹œ์žฅ ๋™ํ–ฅ (9์›” 2์ผ)
๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ: ์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(SHFE), ๋‹ค๋ก„์ƒํ’ˆ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(DCE) ์‹œ์žฅ ๋™ํ–ฅ (9์›” 2์ผ)
๋‹ค์Œ ํ‘œ๋Š” 2026๋…„ 9์›” 2์ผ ์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(SHFE)์™€ ๋‹ค๋ก„์ƒํ’ˆ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(DCE)์˜ ์ฒ ๊ธˆ์† ๋ฐ ๋น„์ฒ ๊ธˆ์† ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋™ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
ใ€ํ……์Šคํ… ๋‰ด์Šค ์†๋ณดใ€‘
18์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
ใ€ํ……์Šคํ… ๋‰ด์Šค ์†๋ณดใ€‘
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ใ€ํ……์Šคํ… ๋‰ด์Šค ์†๋ณดใ€‘
ใ€ํ……์Šคํ… ๋‰ด์Šค ์†๋ณดใ€‘
SMM ๋‰ด์Šค, 9์›” 2์ผ: SMM ํ‘œ๋ณธ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, 2026๋…„ 8์›” ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ํŒŒ๋ผํ……์Šคํ…์‚ฐ์•”๋ชจ๋Š„(APT) ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์ „์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ 3% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. 1์›”๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 8์›”๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ตญ๋‚ด APT ๋ˆ„์  ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์•ฝ 9๋งŒ 2์ฒœ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 0.13% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. 8์›” ๊ตญ๋‚ด APT ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ์•ฝ์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€๊ณ  ์—…๊ณ„ ๋งˆ์ง„์€ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์ถ•์†Œ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ๊ธฐ์—…์€ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ๋ฐ ํ™•์ • ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ผ๋ถ€ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ๋Š” ์ž„๊ฐ€๊ณต ์‚ฌ์—…์„ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์—…๊ณ„ ํ‰๊ท  ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ์€ 70.3%์— ๋‹ฌํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ 3๊ฐœ์›” ์—ฐ์† ํ•˜๋ฝ์„ธ๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋‹ค. 8์›” ๋ง ๊ธฐ์ค€, ์—…๊ณ„ ์ „๋ฐ˜์— ๊ฑธ์ณ ์ผ๋ถ€ ์™„์ œํ’ˆ ์žฌ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์†Œํ™”๋˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ  ๋‚จ์•„ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
18์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[๋ฏธ ์—ฐ์ค€ 9์›” ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ํ™•๋ฅ  66.9%๋กœ ์ƒ์Šน, ๊ฑฐ์‹œ์  ์••๋ ฅ์— SHFE ์ฃผ์„ ์„ ๋ฌผ ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์•ฝ์„ธ ์œ ์ง€ [SMM ์ฃผ์„ ์ •์˜ค ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]]
20์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[๋ฏธ ์—ฐ์ค€ 9์›” ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ํ™•๋ฅ  66.9%๋กœ ์ƒ์Šน, ๊ฑฐ์‹œ์  ์••๋ ฅ์— SHFE ์ฃผ์„ ์„ ๋ฌผ ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์•ฝ์„ธ ์œ ์ง€ [SMM ์ฃผ์„ ์ •์˜ค ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[๋ฏธ ์—ฐ์ค€ 9์›” ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ํ™•๋ฅ  66.9%๋กœ ์ƒ์Šน, ๊ฑฐ์‹œ์  ์••๋ ฅ์— SHFE ์ฃผ์„ ์„ ๋ฌผ ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์•ฝ์„ธ ์œ ์ง€ [SMM ์ฃผ์„ ์ •์˜ค ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]]
[๋ฏธ ์—ฐ์ค€ 9์›” ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ํ™•๋ฅ  66.9%๋กœ ์ƒ์Šน, ๊ฑฐ์‹œ์  ์••๋ ฅ์— SHFE ์ฃผ์„ ์„ ๋ฌผ ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์•ฝ์„ธ ์œ ์ง€ [SMM ์ฃผ์„ ์ •์˜ค ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]]
[SMM ์ฃผ์„ ์ •์˜ค ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ: 9์›” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ฐ์ค€ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ํ™•๋ฅ  66.9%๋กœ ์ƒ์Šน; ๊ฑฐ์‹œ์  ์••๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ SHFE ์ฃผ์„ ์ตœ๋‹ค ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ์ข…๋ชฉ ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์•ฝ์„ธ ์œ ์ง€]
20์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM Analysis: Favourable Macro Front May Lead Tin Prices to End Two-M - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)