Lead Prices Hover at Highs, Smelters Stand Firm on Quotes with Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment [SMM Lead Morning Comment Dec 11]

Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,071/mt and fluctuated around the daily moving average during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it weakened after consolidating at highs and finally closed at $2,058/mt, down $1/mt, a decrease of 0.05%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2501 contract opened at 17,720 yuan/mt. It initially consolidated around the daily moving average, then dipped to 17,570 yuan/mt before rebounding in a V-shape to close at 17,650 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.34%.

Macro side, the US dollar index fluctuated upward, and US inflation data may provide clues for the US Fed's monetary easing path.

Fundamentals side, primary lead smelters experienced resumption as well as maintenance, and secondary refined lead production slowly recovered with shipments at slight discounts. The sentiment of standing firm on quotes and reluctance to sell has eased. Additionally, with the end of the peak season for battery replacement, battery scrap recycling has also entered the off-season. Future attention is needed on raw material supply and whether battery scrap prices will affect secondary refined lead production. Despite suppliers transferring inventory to warehouses, primary lead smelter inventory remains low, and downstream just-in-time procurement has also shifted to warehouse sources. The increase in social inventory is expected to be limited, and lead prices may continue to hover at highs.