Lead Prices Stabilize; Secondary Refined Lead Market Quotes Decrease [SMM Lead Morning Comment Dec 10]

Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,065/mt, consolidating around the daily moving average during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it climbed to a high of $2,097/mt before falling under pressure, ultimately closing at $2,066/mt, down $0.5/mt, a decrease of 0.02%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2501 contract opened at 17,775 yuan/mt, climbed to a high of 17,825 yuan/mt before adjusting downwards, touched a low of 17,675 yuan/mt, and then slightly rebounded, ultimately closing at 17,760 yuan/mt, up 85 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.48%.

Macro side, after the release of US November employment and unemployment data, traders bet on a slower pace of interest rate cuts, continuing the US dollar's rebound trend. Domestically, the December Politburo meeting reiterated a moderately loose monetary policy, continuing to expand domestic demand and implement more proactive fiscal policies.

Fundamentally, after the smog warning was issued in Anhui on December 8, some highway sections were closed, slowing vehicle transportation and temporarily affecting the supply of spot refined lead and battery scrap. The recovery of secondary refined lead production may be lower-than-expected due to environmental protection impacts. After year-end maintenance at primary lead smelters, supply in some regions tightened, downstream buyers were cautious, and some procurement demand shifted to warehouse sources, leading to a slight decrease in lead ingot social inventory. Lead prices corrected from high levels but remained strongly supported below. Attention should be paid to the possibility of suppliers transferring inventory to warehouses and the timing of the smog warning being lifted.