According to SMM data, in November 2024 (30 days), China's metallurgical-grade alumina production increased by 0.71% MoM and 8.80% YoY. As of December 6, China's metallurgical-grade alumina existing capacity was about 103.02 million mt, with actual operating capacity increasing by 3.24% MoM, and the operating rate was 86.63%. From January to November 2024, domestic metallurgical-grade alumina cumulative production increased by 4.41% YoY. This was mainly due to the rush to meet deadlines at multiple domestic alumina refineries in November to meet downstream aluminum demand, coupled with the resumption of capacity that was shut down in October due to environmental protection and equipment maintenance, leading to a record high in domestic operating capacity.
(Note: SMM revised the existing capacity of China's metallurgical-grade alumina during this survey period)
December Forecast: Entering December, domestic alumina refineries are expected to maintain high production levels. SMM has learned that only a few enterprises are considering small-scale maintenance in December, and the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical-grade alumina is expected to be 89.29 million mt/year. On the raw material side, there is no further news on the resumption of domestic ore production, and supply remains tight. Regarding imported ore, as of November 29, the total weekly port arrivals of bauxite at domestic ports were 3.7287 million mt, up 502,700 mt from the previous week. The total weekly port departures of bauxite from major ports in Guinea (including Boffa Port) were 3.5721 million mt, up 958,300 mt from the previous week. The total weekly port departures of bauxite from major ports in Australia were 1.0547 million mt, up 54,600 mt from the previous week. Therefore, in terms of trends, the shipment volume of bauxite from Guinea in October and November has significantly rebounded compared to the rainy season from July to September, but it has not yet stabilized to pre-rainy season levels, still limiting the increase in alumina operating capacity. SMM expects China's metallurgical-grade alumina daily average production to remain stable MoM in December 2024. Future attention should be paid to the pace of new and resumed alumina capacity releases.
